Paul Krugman has concentrated his fire recently on those “thumping their chests” over the falling dollar. He has particular scorn for those recommending a return to the gold standard. In Krugman’s view, a simple look at the historical facts will show that it was a superstitious fetish for the yellow metal that prolonged the Great Depression.

A careful, comprehensive response to Krugman’s charges would involve an explanation of the classical gold standard, and the wonderful peace and prosperity it showered on the world. It was only after the major countries abandoned gold during World War I that major imbalances in international trade began to fester — imbalances that eventually exploded during the early 1930s.[1] As a good capitalist pig, I point the reader to my book on the Depression for the full story.

Fortunately, we can take a shortcut in the present article. Using Krugman’s own graph, we can see that the case for abandoning gold — and devaluing currencies in the process — is not nearly as straightforward as he seems to think.


http://mises.org/story/3778

 

Once upon a (not long ago) time, there was a widely established set of blueprints for regimes of monetary and exchange rate policies, one expected to fit not only the full range of economies in the global arena, but also to serve as a guide for international monetary cooperation. Confidence in the effectiveness of those blueprints has been shattered by the scale and simultaneity of asset price booms and busts that led to the current global economic crisis. A reshuffle of views on monetary and exchange rate policies may turn out to be a companion to the revision of financial regulation.

It is now increasingly accepted that, to some degree and width, mainstreaming reactions to asset price moves in monetary policy is to become a new norm. It is also becoming clear that the previous world of theoretical determinacy and optimum rules of conduct is to give place to less-obvious policy choices and more discretion.

The purpose of this note is to highlight how the special complexity and indeterminacy intrinsic to international monetary-financial relations will deepen under the new regime. In the case of financial transactions between advanced financial systems and emerging markets, there is in addition an asymmetrical impact in terms of higher foreign reserve requirements on the latter.

The determinate world of inflation targeting and exchange-rate corner solutions

“The past 10 years have been the decade of inflation targeting. (…) Narrowly defined, inflation targeting commits central banks to annual inflation goals, invariably measured by the consumer price index (CPI), and to being judged on their ability to hit those targets. Flexible inflation targeting allows central banks to aim at both output and inflation, as enshrined in the famous Taylor Rule. The orthodoxy says that central banks should essentially pay no attention to asset prices, the exchange rate, or export prices, except to the extent that they are harbingers of inflation”(Frankel. 2009).

Asset price cycles were seen as basically harmless – or non-significant as a channel of transmission of monetary policy, as in the case of developing economies without financial depth. Even when the frequent appearance of bubbles started to be acknowledged, the belief – “the Greenspan doctrine” – was that attempts to detect and prick them at an early stage would be impossible to accomplish and potentially harmful. If necessary, resorting to interest rate cuts to safeguard the economy after bubble bursts would be a safer procedure.

Low and stable inflation could then be attained through a forecast-oriented, anticipatory manipulation of basic interest rates, as the single focus for monetary authorities. Movements of floating nominal exchange rates would reinforce the effectiveness of interest rates set to target inflation. Stable inflation would also lead to low risk premiums and higher financial stability.

In the case of small countries, fixing the nominal exchange rate and abdicating of monetary policy would import stability from inflation-targeting countries. The “Great Moderation” period, with developed economies exhibiting relatively low inflation rates and output fluctuations from mid-80s onward, seemed to vindicate that confidence.

This world of presumed stable and stabilizing monetary and financial spheres was shaken by the global financial crisis. With hindsight, asset price booms and busts became acknowledged as both increasingly pervasive and harmful: real-estate and stock-market booms leading to excess US household debt and to fragile asset-liability structures; a generalized bubble burst pushing the global economy to a quasi-collapse.

Endogenous creation of liquidity and the “sea of bubbles”

Chapter 3 of the latest IMF’s “World Economic Outlook” brings evidence on the presence of real-estate and stock-market asset price busts over the past 40 years (WEO – ch.3). The recent experience with widespread busts of both house and stock prices is singular in the last 40 years (Chart 1). However, one can observe not only the frequency of previous episodes, but also that those “asset price busts are relatively evenly distributed before and after 1985 – a year that broadly marks the beginning of the ‘Great Moderation’” (p.95).

The Arrival of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy by Otaviano Canuto

 

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Europe Concerned as Dollar Decline Continues

A number of European countries have embarked on a slow recovery following the economic collapse late last year. But with the euro now at a 14-month high against the dollar, euro zone officials worry exports could suffer.

 

Before I knew anything about the finance industry, if someone had thrown out the name “Blackrock” I would have conjured up a scene from the Wild West, a cattle rancher hiring a gunslinger to roust out the sheep farmers and take control of the town. But now, of course, I know that BlackRock is a financial behemoth with $1.5 trillion in assets under management — soon to be over $2 trillion due to its purchase of Barclay’s asset management business. But of more note than its asset footprint is the mantle BlackRock is gradually assuming as the arbiter of value.

BlackRock won a set of contracts to provide analytics for the New York Fed’s trillion dollar mortgage-backed purchase program. Now, BlackRock may end up with an NAIC contract to analyze the mortgage-backed securities in insurers’ portfolios.

I do not mean to diminish BlackRock’s laudable role in assisting in many ways with the financial crisis – coming forward when a number of other large firms demurred. But as one contract is piled on another, their models will become the standard for pricing mortgages, complex derivatives and structured products. Unlike the money management business, which is competitive and relatively transparent, this is a monopoly ready for the making. A monopoly because the more institutions, industry associations and regulatory bodies that employ their services, the more they become the de facto standard. Over time, auditors, clients and equity holders – perhaps even regulators – will start saying, “Well, it is nice to see what your internal models have to say about your portfolio value, but we want your portfolio benchmarked using the BlackRock model.” A BlackRock seal of approval; BlackRock, the JD Powers of portfolio quality.

Here are the problems with this:

First, of course, is the well-known issue of allowing a private enterprise to have monopoly control of a utility – in this case a de facto replacement of the rating agencies (not a bad thing in itself) by putting one firm in the position of providing the benchmark pricing of financial products. Second, there are natural conflicts of interest given that BlackRock is also the asset manager for the New York Fed’s Maiden Lane portfolios and has raised over half a billion in private capital to purchase legacy securities as part of PPIP. (Though I should add that BlackRock is aware of this issue and has stated the firm has strict internal controls preventing any valuation services from being gamed by its investment arm. Which should make us all feel a lot better).

But the most critical problem is that its approach is at variance with the broadly held view that we need to have transparency in the derivatives markets because, unlike, say, RiskMetrics, BlackRock does not share the specifications of the models it employs. We don’t really know what these models are doing. Valuations based on a black-box BlackRock model, or, for that matter, anyone else’s black box model, do not get us the transparency we need. I don’t care what a trading desk uses for its decision making, but when it comes to valuations that carry beyond the firm, we need to be able to see and critique the models that are being used. If a model is to become a standard, if it is going to be used for regulatory or other benchmarking purposes, it should be transparent and subject to peer review.

Which gets to a simple point: If we want to go down the path of standardized valuation and comparability in these complex portfolios, we need open derivatives models. One thing we should have learned from the rating agency debacle is that even if we put aside the issues of monopoly power and conflict of interest, we cannot stop with having the proprietor of such models say, “Trust me, I know what I’m doing.”


Originally published at Rick Bookstaber’s Blog

 

From the Wall Street Journal:

Borrow from the Federal Reserve at zero and lend to Treasury for a profit.  That’s some racket.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have announced that the recession is over. Now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken the 10,000 mark, we’ll surely be hearing assurances that economic growth is here to stay. But the credit markets are in much worse shape than some indicators suggest.

 

Public trust has economic consequences, by Howard Davies, Commentary, Project Syndicate: Public trust in financial institutions, and in the authorities that are supposed to regulate them, was an early casualty of the financial crisis. That is hardly surprising, as previously revered firms revealed that they did not fully understand the very instruments they dealt in or the risks they assumed. … But … if this loss of trust persists, it could be costly for us all.

As Ralph Waldo Emerson remarked, “Our distrust is very expensive.” The Nobel laureate Kenneth Arrow made the point in economic terms almost 40 years ago: “It can be plausibly argued that much of the economic backwardness in the world can be explained by the lack of mutual confidence.”

Indeed, much economic research has demonstrated a powerful relationship between the level of trust in a community and its aggregate economic performance. Without mutual trust, economic activity is severely constrained. …

So if it is true that trust in financial institutions – and in the governments that oversee them – has been damaged by the crisis, we should care a lot, and we should be devising responses which seek to rebuild that trust. …

In the United States,… a … systematic, independent survey promoted by economists at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business … did show a sharp fall in trust in late 2008 and early 2009, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

That fall in confidence affected banks, the stock market, and the government and its regulators. Furthermore, the survey showed that … if your trust in the market and in the way it is regulated fell sharply, you were less likely to deposit money in banks or invest in stocks.

So falling trust had real economic consequences. Fortunately, the latest survey, published in July this year, shows that trust in banks and bankers has begun to recover, and quite sharply. This has been positive for the stock market.

There is also a little more confidence in the government’s response and in financial regulation than there was at the end of last year. The latter point, which no doubt reflects the Obama administration’s attempts to reform the dysfunctional system it inherited, is particularly important, as the sharpest declines in investment intentions were among those who had lost confidence in the government’s ability to regulate.

It would seem that rebuilding confidence in the Federal Reserve and the Securities and Exchange Commission is economically more important than rebuilding trust in Citibank or AIG. Continuing disputes in Congress about the precise details of reform could, therefore, have an economic cost if a perception that the system will not be overhauled gains ground. …

Researchers at the European University Institute in Florence and UCLA recently demonstrated that there is a relationship between trust and individuals’ income. …

The data show, intriguingly, that … if you diverge markedly from society’s average level of trust, you are likely to lose out, either because you are so distrustful of others that you miss out on opportunities for investment and mutually beneficial exchange, or because you are so trusting that you leave yourself open to being cheated and abused. …

Maybe we should trust each other more – but not too much.

 

How did the Dow break 10,000 when the rest of the economy is in the toilet?

1. Corporate earnings are up — mainly because companies have been cutting costs. Payrolls comprise 70 percent of most companies’ costs, which means companies have been slashing jobs. In the end, this is a self-defeating strategy. If workers don’t have jobs or are afraid of losing them, they won’t buy, and company profits will disappear. 2. Federal borrowing has filled the gap that consumers and businesses created when the latter began to reduce their debt. Federal debt, in other words, has kept the economy from tanking. Can’t keep up forever, though.

3. With such horrid employment numbers, Wall Street figures the Fed will keep interest rates low for some time, and continue to flood the economy with money. That’s good news for the Street because it means money stays cheap — and with cheap money the Street can make lots of bets on almost everything under the sun and moon. As a result, the Street’s earnings are way up. But this, too, is temporary. At some point the Fed is going to worry about inflation and a falling dollar.

4. Investors of all stripes want to get in early and ride the wave. Pension funds, mutual funds, and other institutional investors figure the bull market has more oomph in it because, well, other investors will jump in. Think Ponzi scheme. Nice for now, but watch out if you’re one of the last in.

In other words, this is all temporary fluff, folks. Anyone who hasn’t learned by now that there’s almost no relationship between the Dow and the real economy deserves to lose his or her shirt in the Wall Street casino.


Originally published at Robert Reich’s Blog

 

Washington Post Crashed-and-Burned-and-Smoking Watch: …[The Washington Posts's] Fred Hiatt this morning:

Re-Stimulating. Unemployment is bad. More fiscal debt might be worse: At 9.8 percent, the unemployment rate is higher than it has been since it hit 10.1 percent in June 1983. Since the recession began 21 months ago, the economy has shed nearly 7 million jobs. Whole industries — cars, housing, finance — have been devastated and may never recover fully. Nevertheless, White House economists reported in September that “employment is estimated to be between 600,000 and 1.1 million higher than it would otherwise have been” because of the Obama administration’s stimulus plan and other government policies, especially the Fed’s monetary expansion. While no one can prove or disprove that — much less apportion credit between fiscal and monetary policy — basic economics suggests that things might have been even worse if the government had done nothing…

It does not necessarily follow, however, that the economy needs more stimulus now. Government has managed to blunt the recession, but at a cost — a higher national debt burden, which future Americans must pay off by working harder and saving more than they otherwise would have…

Ummm…

So far the stimulus spendout has been some $160 billion. The midpoint estimate by Christy Romer and company is that GDP is now 1% higher than it would have been otherwise. That higher level of production and employment than we would have seen otherwise is going to lead to the collection of an extra $80 billion in tax revenues. That means that the net effect of the $160 billion we have pushed out the door has been to raise the national debt by $80 billion. The Treasury can now borrow through its TIPS program for 20 years at an interest rate of 2% plus inflation. That means that taxes in the future have to be higher by $1.6 billion per year–by $5 per person per year.

Thus the stimulus package so far:

  • Incur an extra forward-looking tax burden per person of 1.3 cents per day…
  • Get an extra 800,000 people productively at work–and get all the stuff they make and do–this year…

That looks like a very good deal: buying an extra productive job for an American today at a cost of $2000 per year in higher taxes looking forward–particularly when you think that some of those extra jobs build up our productive capacity to make us richer in the future as well.

The stimulus arithmetic suggests we should be doing more of it. The benefit-cost ratio at current stimulus spending levels is very good…

But nobody on Fred Hiatt’s staff realized this. For nobody on Fred Hiatt’s staff thinks that doing any arithmetic is part of their job description. Indeed, nobody on Fred Hiatt’s staff is capable of doing any arithmetic at all.

 

One hundred and seventy-nine years ago, a short span in the life of a nation, the representatives of the American people, in arms against the British Crown, proclaimed on a new continent a new philosophy of government. After the end of the military struggle for independence this philosophy was set forth in detail, and with rare insight and erudition, in the Federalist Papers and finally embodied in the Constitution of the United States.

The Fourth of July could well be an occasion for getting a firm grasp on the principles on which the American Republic was founded. Our educational institutions have not coped adequately with the task of communicating these principles to students. I know from personal experience that it is possible to go through a first-rate preparatory school and an excellent college without being impressed by the sheer thrill of political and intellectual adventure associated with the launching of the United States as an independent nation.

For it was an adventure, about which there were many prophets of gloom and doom on the other side of the Atlantic and some in the newly emancipated colonies themselves. Here were thirteen sparsely populated states, more distant from each other in terms of travel and communication than New York now is from London or Tokyo, starting out as a new nation without institutions which most Europeans then regarded as essential to stability without a monarchy, an hereditary aristocracy, or an established national church.

It was easy to imagine a relapse into anarchy, followed by the emergence of a “strong man” as dictator. But apart from the tragic schism of the Civil War (slavery and the right of a state to secede from the Union were two issues which the Constitution left unsolved), the United States has enjoyed almost two centuries of ordered freedom, unmarred by plots, internal sedition and successful or unsuccessful coups d’état.

The ideal of self-government, first proclaimed for the three million Americans of 1776, scattered along the Atlantic fringe of the country, still works for 160 million Americans who have filled up a vast country. The debt which Americans today owe to the men who framed the institutions of the young Republic, to Washington and Jefferson, Hamilton and Madison, Adams and Jay, is beyond estimation.

These men sometimes differed among themselves; but when they differed, it was usually because they emphasized two aspects of a single political truth. The product of their collective wisdom, the United States Constitution, is a mechanism of extraordinarily delicate balance. So far as human wisdom could foresee dangers and provide safeguards, the individual is secured against oppression by the central government, the states are left in possession of all the functions which are not clearly the proper concern of the federal government, and the powers and limitations of the three branches of the federal government are so defined that no one of these branches can dominate the others and become all-powerful.

The Founding Fathers’ Forethought

No form of government devised in history was so careful to avoid the dangers of concentrated power and so favorable to letting the citizen go as far and as fast as his individual capacity would carry him, without state coddling, state regulation and state domination, which always go hand in hand. The Founding Fathers were mindful of the admonition voiced by one of the strongest and clearest political thinkers of the Revolution, John Adams:

The institutions now made in America will not wholly wear out for thousands of years. It is of the last importance, then, that they should begin right. If they set out wrong, they will never be able to return, unless it be by accident, to the right path.

Adams and Jefferson, Madison and Hamilton, and many of their colleagues were men of exceptional learning. They were steeped in the Greek and Latin classics, in the history of medieval and modern Europe, in British and French constitutional theory and practice. At the same time they were not cloistered scholars, but men of action, who played leading roles in overturning an old form of government and setting up a new one. As a result of this double capacity, they possessed a panoramic view of the rise and fall of states in the past combined with a clear, intimate knowledge of the special conditions of America.

A coherent body of ideas figures prominently in the philosophy of the founders of the American Republic and may be studied to advantage in the Federalist Papers. These ideas, incidentally, are not only of tremendous historical importance, but are of the utmost reality and vitality in our own time. For the noble ideal of liberty, the word most often used in the literature of the American Revolution, has been horribly perverted by fanatics and cynically misused by tyrants.

It was not only in Jacobin France that many crimes, as Madame Roland cried on the scaffold, were committed in the name of liberty. As Professor J. L. Talmon brings out in his erudite and stimulating book, The Rise of Totalitarian Democracy (Beacon Press), the ideological origins of Soviet communism are not entirely in the writings of Marx and Engels.

Robespierre and the French Jacobins, nourished on Rousseau and some of the less known collectivist thinkers of the eighteenth century, worked out a conception of a virtuous elite that was morally entitled to persuade the people — with the aid of the guillotine, and for the people’s own good, of course — to hold and express unanimous opinions which would coincide with those of the virtuous elite. This was the Model T version of modern communism, and fascism borrowed something in theory and a good deal in practice from communism.

Against all utopian conceptions, such as Rousseau’s “general will,” which would lead to an absolute concentration of governmental power, the Founding Fathers set their faces like flint. From study and personal experience they knew what liberty was and what it was not. They knew that a mob or political party operating without opposition could be just as cruel, just as destructive of freedom, as an absolute monarch or a military dictator. One of the clearest and profoundest statements of this deep distrust of concentrated state power is that of Madison in Number 47 of The Federalist:

The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of one, a few or many, and whether hereditary, self-appointed or elective, may justly he pronounced the very definition of tyranny.

Safeguards against Big Government

Far from deifying the state, the Founding Fathers regarded government as a necessary but dangerous instrument, which required many safeguards against abuse. Although they were accustomed, especially in New England, to the grassroots local democracy of the town meeting, they drew a careful distinction between the terms democracy and republic. Madison states the distinction in Number 14 of The Federalist:

In a democracy the people meet and exercise the government in person; in a republic they assemble and administer it by their representatives and agents. A democracy, consequently, will be confined to a small spot. A republic may be extended over a large region.

It is evident from the tone of The Federalist and other political writings of the time that the Founding Fathers were not devotees of unlimited majority rule or of over-strong government. They recognized that minorities and individuals have rights, such as life, liberty and property, which no majority may lawfully take away. It is significant that the Constitution devotes at least as much attention to telling the government what it may not do as to telling it what it may do, and its prohibitions are expressed in plain, unambiguous, uncompromising language:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press.

It is worthwhile to contrast these simple flat assurances with the long-winded resolutions of the United Nations on these subjects, full of escape clauses, weasel words, and loopholes for evasion. The Declaration of Independence takes its stand on “the laws of Nature and of Nature’s God”; and belief in natural law and inalienable rights which men possess independently of government and which no government may lawfully deny, withhold, or abridge is one of the cornerstones of American liberty.

In the literature of the American Revolution there is no demagogic attempt to set human rights against property rights. In the Federalist Papers and in other publications it is recognized that the right to acquire and own property is a basic and very important human right. As John Adams wrote:

The moment the idea is admitted into society that property is not as sacred as the laws of God, and that there is not a force of law and public justice to protect it, anarchy and tyranny commence.

Here, then, are the foundations of the free society of the American Republic: belief in natural law and inherent, inalienable human rights, intense distrust of any concentration of power in government, a suspicious attitude toward tyranny, whether of monarch or mob, including tyranny of the majority. Insofar as these foundations have been respected, America has prospered and grown great. It is where they have been most eroded and whittled away that some of the clearest danger signals in our national life are flying.

The Young French Visitor

Some of these danger signals were clear as early as the 1830s to the most profound and clear-sighted observer of the young American Republic, Alexis de Tocqueville. His work, Democracy in America, is a double masterpiece. It is a most penetrating study of the United States, its political institutions, its psychological traits, at the time of Andrew Jackson’s presidency, and it contains some strikingly accurate predictions of the American future. It is also a most searching study of the positive and negative sides of the leveling democracy which was beginning to prevail in the Western world. And it is written in a style that is always lucid and readable and often strikingly brilliant. For understanding the main political and psychological currents in the American history, de Tocqueville’s work is a worthy companion of the cogent, close-knit reasoning of the Federalist Papers.

As an observer of American life, de Tocqueville steers a middle course between sentimental gush and the squeamish repulsion which some cultivated Europeans like Mrs. Trollope felt for the free-and-easy frontier manners, with the copious expectorations of tobacco juice and the habit of calling all and sundry colonel or captain. He notes the self-reliant individualism of the American character:

The citizen of the United States is taught from his earliest infancy to rely upon his own exertions in order to resist the evils and the difficulties of life; he looks upon social authority with an eye of mistrust and anxiety, and he only claims its assistance when he is quite unable to shift without it.

Praised Local Initiative

As an authentic nineteenth-century liberal, de Tocqueville approves this tendency; he notes that the sum of private undertakings far exceeds all that the government could have done. He notes that there is no such thing as an American peasant and that although education is spread thinly, there are no pools of total illiteracy and stagnation. Again and again he praises the vitality of local initiative which builds excellent schools and churches and keeps the roads in good repair without any meddling interference from a centralized bureaucracy. And he pays to America of that time two compliments which are more impressive because he does not spare criticism on other points:

The European generally submits to a public officer because he represents a superior force, but to an American he represents a right. In America it may be said that no one renders obedience to man, but to justice and to law….

All commodities and ideas circulate throughout the Union as freely as in a country inhabited by one people. Nothing checks the spirit of enterprise…. The Union is as happy and free as a small people, and as glorious and strong as a great nation.

De Tocqueville is not blind to the fact that Americans possess the defects of their virtues. He notes a considerable downgrading of intelligence in high places since the formative years of the Republic. There is a memorable picture of the restless materialism which causes Americans to pursue illusions to the end of their days:

A native of the United States clings to this world’s goods as if he were certain never to die; and he is so hasty in grasping at all within his reach that one would suppose he was constantly afraid of not living long enough to enjoy them. He clutches everything, he holds nothing fast, but soon loosens his grasp to pursue fresh gratifications…. Death at length overtakes him, but it is before he is weary of his bootless chase of that complete felicity which is forever on the wing.

A source of fascination in de Tocqueville is his rare gift of accurate prediction. Some of his observations fit America, and the world, in the middle of the twentieth century even better than the conditions of his own time. There was no income tax in the America which de Tocqueville visited; but he foresaw the shape of things to come:

Universal suffrage invests the poor with the government of society…. Wherever the poor direct public affairs and dispose of the natural resources it appears certain that, as they profit by the expenditure of the State, they are apt to augment that expenditure…. I have no hesitation in predicting that, if the people of the United States is ever involved in serious difficulties, its taxation will speedily be increased to the rate of that which prevails in the greater part of the aristocracies and monarchies of Europe.

There is the famous and remarkable forecast of the era of the American-Russian Cold War:

There are, at the present time, two great nations in the world which seem to tend toward the same end, although they started from different points: I allude to the Russians and the Americans…. All other nations seem to have nearly reached their natural limits…but these are still in the act of growth…. The Anglo-American relies upon personal interest to accomplish his ends, and gives free scope to the unguided exertions and common sense of the citizens; the Russian centers all the authority of society in the single arm; the principal instrument o£ the former is freedom; of the latter servitude. Their starting point is different and their courses are not the same; yet each of them seems marked out by the will of heaven to sway the destinies of half the globe.

De Tocqueville was alarmed not by “excessive liberty” in the United States, but by inadequate securities against tyranny. For, like other nineteenth-century libertarians who were democrats only with reservations — like Burckhardt, Acton, Mill — he realized that there was danger in the tyranny of the majority and sensed that the dykes which the framers of the Constitution had erected against this kind of tyranny were being weakened by the upsurge of democracy in the raw.

He realized that the day of the absolute hereditary monarch and of the privileged aristocrat was gone; but he saw new perils to liberty on the horizon of the future. With remarkable perspicacity he foresaw two developments which became realities in the twentieth century: the totalitarian society of communism and fascism and the paternalistic Welfare State. Regarding the former, he noted the likelihood that

those hideous eras of Roman oppression, when the manners of the people were corrupted, their traditions obliterated, their habits destroyed, their opinions shaken and freedom, expelled from the laws, could find no refuge in the land

might recur. Certainly the crimes of a Stalin, a Hitler, a Mao Tse-tung, far exceed anything that could be laid to the charge of a legitimate ruler in the era of royal absolutism.

There’s never been a better time to remember the revolutionary and even libertarian roots of the American founding, and there’s no better guide to what this means in the narrative of the Colonial period than Murray Rothbard.

Still more vivid and eloquent is de Tocqueville’s imaginary sketch of a paternalistic state which would not practice the bloody oppression of dictators, but would reduce each nation “to nothing better than a flock of timid and industrious animals, of which the government is the shepherd,” that would undertake “to spare its subjects all the care of thinking and all the trouble of living.” The American Republic was, in the winged phrase of Lincoln, conceived in liberty.

But liberty is one of the most complex, as it is one of the most precious, of human conceptions. It flourishes best in the kind of equilibrium between government and citizen, individual and society, majority and minority which the Founding Fathers wrote into the Constitution. The dangers to true liberty vary from generation to generation; but it can never be maintained without constant struggle. There is no surer guide to the principles of political liberty than the Federalist Papers; no more penetrating and imaginative study of the forces that may wreck or sap liberty than de Tocqueville’s great classic.

There could be no better Fourth of July reading than some of the outstanding passages in both these works.

This article was originally published July 1955 in The Freeman.Download PDF An MP3 audio file of this article, read by Floy Lilley, is available for download.

 
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confidence data we had, we’re starting to see a pattern of weakness emerge,” said Kevin Caron, market strategist at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co in New Jersey.
See all stories on this topic

 

Markit’s Gavan Nolan wrote this CDS report
A sense of foreboding enveloped the credit markets last week. A plethora of economic indicators – leading and lagging – gave investors cause to question the V-shaped recovery being priced into credit spreads. More…

 

The Future of Investing
FT writers join major world figures in examining the implications of the credit crunch on our investment system.

 

The Whole Foods founder talks about his Journal health-care op-ed that spawned a boycott, how he deals with unions, and why he thinks CEOs are overpaid.

John Mackey: Conscience of a Capitalist – Steve Moore, Wall Street Journal

 

How the Recovery Might Unfold

With economists estimating that the recession is drawing to a close, the question is what type of recovery will follow. Hear from our vice president of market analysis.
More

 

Musings from Bill Bonner:

A few years ago, it looked to us as though the world financial system had gone to war. We cheerfully awaited the victory parade. We figured Mr. Market would whup the feds good and hard. It hasn’t happened so far.

On one side, are the forces of a natural market correction…following a long, long period of expansion. The easier money gets, the more people tend to misspend and mis-invest it. Then, inevitably, their mistakes must be corrected. That’s what bear markets and recessions are for.

But the feds don’t like bear markets or recessions. And at least since the Keynes outlined his general theory back in the early 20th century, they’ve believed that they don’t have to put up with them. Keynes took a page from the Old Testament. Government should act like an enlightened Egyptian Pharaoh, he didn’t say, but should have. It should run surpluses in the fat years and deficits in the lean years…thus flattening out the pattern of boom and bust.

Pharaoh was no dope. He stored up grain for seven years, when the harvests were bountiful. Then, when the seven lean years came, he released the grain to the people. Problem solved.

Keynes believed that modern government could do the same thing. But Pharaoh was not running a democracy. He had no voters to answer to. So, if he wanted to store grain in the fat years, he could do so.

In theory, the US government could do the same. But, in fact, it never runs significant surpluses. There are too many people who want too much bread and too many circuses. And you don’t win votes by denying the voters what they want. So, in practice, the feds run deficits even in the fat years! Last year, before the downturn really started to bite, the US federal government ran the biggest deficit in history – nearly half a trillion dollars.

Now, let’s imagine how that would work for a bad Pharaoh. He would give out grain in the fat years. This would encourage farmers to produce less grain. Then, when the lean years came, Pharaoh would have no grain to give out…and the farmers would have less grain stored up themselves, since they grew less during the boom years. The famine would be worse than ever.

Then, if we can imagine that Egypt was trading with China at the time, perhaps Pharaoh could borrow grain from the Zhou dynasty to help ease the peoples’ pain. Perhaps he could mortgage the pyramids. Whatever, he – and the Egyptian people – would have been in much better position if he had done as Joseph told him in the first place…lay up stores in good times, draw then down in bad times. How difficult is that?

But Bernanke didn’t see the famine coming. Neither did Geithner. Or Greenspan. Or any of the other savants Pharaoh interpret his dreams. None of them expected hard times. None of them warned the public. None of them encouraged the government to save money for the recession. Nassim Taleb asks why Bernanke was reappointed after he clearly failed the most critical test. But heck…the federal government is an equal opportunity employer. Employees aren’t let go just become they’re incompetent.

 

In Asset Allocation, Rick Bookstaber takes issue with the notion of being able to construct an all-weather portfolio and argues that there is “no magic asset allocation that protects you from the buffetings of financial storms without it also trimming your sails during fair weather.”

 

Bottom Line. The Fed is moving toward the exit as they look toward the conclusion of their securities purchases programs. But it is not clear that such a move is justified by their own forecasts or the inflation/wage/employment data. There may be an internal fear they have gone too far, a fear that the hawks can exploit. To be sure, I see no reason to expect the Fed will raise rates for a long time. And the Fed maintains it policy flexibility, claiming to be ready to revive asset purchases should economic or financial conditions justify. But I now suspect the bar for renewed expansion of Fed accommodation may be much higher than I had anticipated. And that the dominant push for expansion would have to come from financial market conditions, while they would be willing to tolerate persistently high unemployment rates so long as U. Michigan inflation expectations say elevated, regardless of the actual inflation data.

At Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

 

Background

According to statistics from the Ministry of Defense (SEDENA), between January 2002 and December 2006, more than 140,000 soldiers deserted the Mexican army. Although to a lesser degree, this trend has continued into the Calderon era with at least 48,000 soldiers deserting between in 2007-2009, despite improvements in salaries and fringe benefits during this era. While the majority of desertion has taken place among low-ranking troops, the number of army specialists deserting is on the rise—a previously unseen phenomenon.

The first part of this report looks into the causes of desertion and the impact this might have on the army’s capabilities for traditional responses as well as in the war against drug cartels. The second part of this report takes a broad view of the army’s structural problems and other emerging factors, which will be obstacles for the army’s performance in the long run.

Read Desertion, Low Morale, and Readiness: Assessing the Mexican Army’s Involvement in the War Against the Cartels and its Impact on Capabilities for Traditional Responses.

 

Voters in Germany gave a substantial plurality to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s right-of-center Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU), in a general election held last Sunday to choose members of the Bundestag, the lower house of Germany’s bicameral legislature. Moreover, Chancellor Merkel – who has ruled for the past four years in a grand coalition with its main adversary, the center-left Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), following an inconclusive federal election in 2005 – will be able to form a government with its preferred coalition partner, the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), which scored its best election result ever.

The upcoming government will also have a majority in the Bundesrat – the indirectly-elected federal upper chamber – following elections in the Länder (federal states) of Schleswig-Holstein and Brandenburg, which were held concurrently with the Bundestag poll.

Meanwhile, the Social Democrats sustained heavy losses and polled their worst result since the establishment of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1949. However, both the Left Party (an amalgam of leftist SPD dissidents and ex-Communists from the former East Germany) and the environmentalist Alliance ’90/The Greens made inroads at the expense of SPD; both parties scored nationwide vote percentages in the double digits for the first time ever.

Members of the Bundestag are elected by a Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system, under which half the chamber’s seats are filled in single-member constituencies by plurality or first-past-the-post voting, while the remaining half come from closed party lists; voters cast a first vote for a constituency candidate, and a second vote for a party list. All Bundestag seats (constituency and party list alike) are distributed by proportional representation among parties that win at least five percent of the nationwide second (that is, list) vote, or secure no fewer than three direct (constituency) mandates. Bundestag seats are subsequently apportioned among state-level lists on a party-by-party basis, and constituency mandates won by a party are subtracted from its corresponding seat total, with the remaining seats coming from the party’s list.

However, if a party obtains direct mandates in excess of its assigned seat total in any given state, it is allowed to keep the additional seats – known as overhang mandates – and the Bundestag is expanded accordingly. In Sunday’s election, CDU and CSU won a total of 24 overhang mandates – which did not change the election outcome (contrary to what had been feared in the days preceding the vote), but nonetheless will increase the upcoming CDU/CSU-FDP coalition government’s Bundestag majority from eighteen to forty-two.

Germany’s 2009 Bundestag election: a political realignment in progress?

by Manuel Alvarez-Rivera, Puerto Rico

 

In Why the Dow is Hitting 10,000 even when Consumers Can’t Buy and Business Cries “Socialism” , Robert Reich clarifies how the Dow can hit 10,000 despite the fact that one out of six Americans is either unemployed or underemployed, home values have dropped by 1/3 in two years, and American are saving for the first time in over a decade.

 

Any advice for the little guy who’s getting screwed? “Don’t day-trade: It’s a losing game to try to make money chasing momentary market inefficiencies. Too many pros with too much computing power are already at it. Instead, decide on a set of long-term investing goals and trade infrequently to achieve them.”

Closing Shot. Sequel Coming: 2011 Meltdown, the Great Depression 2

“Remember the 1930s … stash cash under your mattress”… then, slowly fade to black.

‘Reaganonomics, A Love Story: The Epic Film’ – Paul Farrell, MarketWatch

 

Loss Severities & Foreclosure – Bill Berliner & Paul Jacob, Fixed Income Color
Setting the State for Sustainable Growth – Richard Berner, Morgan Stanley
August Housing Starts Rose Solidly – Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo Economics
Government Regulations and Fuel Efficiency – Sam Kornell, Miller-McCune

 

When the market is overvalued, as it is now, rising interest rates can have a much more severe impact as the market quickly eliminates its’ overvaluation as it did in 1961 and 1987.

The current rally is being driven by the liquidity the Fed has flooded the system with over the past year. But in 2010, if the economy is rebounding, and particularly if growth is stronger than expected, the Fed will be under intense pressure to drain this liquidity. Some Fed spokesmen are already warnings that rates could rise rapidly over the next year.

Stock Markets When EPS Growth Turns Positive – Spencer, Angry Bear

 

This week, as you may have noticed on Monday, but had probably forgotten by this morning, was the first anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

For Rip Van Winkles who look at their finances only once a year and note that stockmarkets, house prices and currencies are today pretty much where they were a year ago, Lehman was a second-tier Wall Street investment bank that went bankrupt on September 15 2008: 9/15 is not ingrained in our memories like 9/11 but it triggered what was briefly the biggest financial crisis in history and inspired widespread prophecies of a 1930s-style Great Depression and the end of the capitalist world as we know it. We now know that the sky did not fall in as the Chicken Little commentators predicted, but does this mean that all the fuss was just a storm in a teacup?

The answer is no. As a result of Lehman’s bankruptcy, millions of people have needlessly lost their jobs, hundreds of thousands of homes have been needlessly repossessed and trillions of dollars, pounds and euros have been needlessly added to the debt burdens of governments around the world. I repeat that word needlessly because most of these losses would not have happened if Lehman had been supported or wound down in an orderly way.

The chaotic collapse of Lehman was the heart attack that turned a serious, but manageable, ailment in the world of finance and the housing markets into a near-death experience for the real economy of industry and jobs. In short, the world changed with Lehman.

9/15 Is a Date We Should Never Forget – Anatole Kaletsky, Times of London

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