New Jersey CFO

Eggplant Activist

A Greenpeace activist dressed as an egg plant, or aubergine, protests in Bangalore, India on Friday against Bt brinjal, a genetically modified (GM) egg plant crop. The Indian government is organizing a series of public consultations to decide on whether to approve it as India’s first GM crop.

Add comment January 23rd, 2010

BRILLIANT PALINDROME

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42E2fAWM6rA

Add comment January 10th, 2010

A Wet Christmas

Water flooded St. Mark’s Square in Venice on Wednesday, the highest level yet for 2009, with 143 centimeters. The flooding has filled more than half of the historical city center with water. The phenomenon of high water, which floods the Venice lagoon, occurs mainly between autumn and spring when tides are reinforced by seasonal winds. But the heavy rain and snowfall which has been hitting most of Italy in the past few days contributed to a rise in the lagoon’s water level. Officials are warning the water could remain until after Christmas and that tourists should be certain to bring along a pair of Wellington boots.

Add comment December 27th, 2009

The Apparatchiks

Add comment November 21st, 2009

Behold the Wizard Unmasked

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Add comment November 14th, 2009

Smoke Signals

Add comment October 24th, 2009

Palin Power

By MarketWatch

LONDON (MarketWatch) — Former vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin’s decision to quit her day job as Alaska’s governor is starting to pay off.

Palin, who abruptly resigned as governor last summer to widespread media guffaws, made her debut on the international speaking circuit Wednesday, addressing fund managers and financial professionals at a Hong Kong conference sponsored by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. See related story.

The speech apparently had something to do with the views of main-street Americans. But as the press was barred from covering it, the details aren’t readily available.

It doesn’t matter.

As with so many things about Palin, the message isn’t what she says, it’s who she is.

In this case she is the financially savvy politician, as sharp as anybody who was present in the room.

Palin was reportedly paid a fee in the low six figures for her chat with the fund managers. If true, the money essentially replaces, in a single hour’s work, the annual income she gave up when she quit being governor. The fee also puts her in the top ranks on “the circuit.”

A few more appearances like Wednesday’s and the legal bills from Palin’s time as governor go away.

Then, it’s on to the serious business of raising funds and profile for whatever future she wants.

Whatever lack of gravitas Palin may suffer from is overwhelmed by her money-making potential: Think of the choice of pitches for a potential political donors: “Give $5,000 and get your picture with Mitt Romney or give $5,000 get your picture with Sarah Palin.”

Notwithstanding the horrific press bashings she’s endured — perhaps even because of them — Palin remains as hot a political commodity as the right has.

And if there’s one thing fund managers are supposed to keep track of, it’s what the hot stocks are.

Add comment September 23rd, 2009

4 Problems That Could Sink America

If we’re lucky, the recession is winding down, and life will start to feel a bit more comfortable before long. But that doesn’t mean things will go back to the way they used to be.

The global recession that began in America’s housing market has shaken the world’s economic order and possibly knocked the United States down a notch or two. The spendthrift American consumer is out of money. American wages are flat. Despite some hopeful signs, the U.S. economy could muddle along for years.

[See why a housing rebound could take 20 years.]

Meanwhile, actions in China—rather than the United States—may have been the initial trigger for a global economic recovery. Many other nations will grow faster than the United States over the next few years and command an increasing share of the world’s resources. “The message to Americans,” says Mauro Guillen, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, “is you need to redouble your efforts to be more competitive.”

American innovation has solved daunting problems before and could again. But it would be a mistake to assume that American prosperity will continue on some preordained upward course. Nations rise and fall, often realizing what happened only in retrospect. Here are four problems that are undermining our future prosperity:

We don‘t like to work. Sure, now that jobs are scarce, everybody’s willing to put in a few extra hours to stay ahead of the ax. But look around: We still expect easy money, hope to retire early, and embrace the oversimplistic message of bestsellers like The One Minute Millionaire and The 4-Hour Workweek. Unfortunately, the rest of the world isn’t sending as much money our way as it used to, which makes it harder to do less with more.

White-collar jobs are now migrating overseas just like blue-collar ones. Kids in Asia spend the summer studying math and science while American mall rats are texting each other about Britney and Miley. “We need a different mind-set,” says Guillen. “People need to invest more in their own future. Instead of buying stuff at the mall, spend the money on evening classes. Learn a language or skills you don’t have.”

I recently interviewed entrepreneur Gary Vaynerchuk, who transformed his father’s neighborhood liquor store into a $60 million business anchored by the Web site winelibrarytv.com. An overnight success? Hardly. Vaynerchuk has big plans, and he works at least 16 hours a day to achieve them. “If you want to work eight hours a day,” he says, “you’re going to get eight-hour-a-day results. There’s nothing wrong with that, but I don’t want to hear you bitch about money if you’re only willing to work eight hours a day.”

Vaynerchuk is 33 and has something in common with John Bogle, the founder of the Vanguard mutual fund firm, who’s 80. I talked to Bogle recently about how Americans need to change their approach to work and money. He told me this: “We need more caution, more savings, and we may have to work harder. Maybe we need more people who like to work and don’t count down every day till retirement.”

[Read Bogle's thoughts on how to invest smarter after the recession.]

Nobody wants to sacrifice. Why should we? The government is standing by with stimulus money, banker bailouts, homeowner aid, cash for clunkers, expanded healthcare, and maybe more stimulus money. And most Americans will never have to pay an extra dime for any of this. Somehow, $9 trillion worth of government debt will just become somebody else’s problem.

When he was campaigning, candidate Obama dabbled with the “personal responsibility” theme, and in his acceptance speech in November he called for a “new spirit of sacrifice.” But now that he’s in office, there’s less interest in such quaint ideas. During his prime-time news conference about healthcare reform in July, a reporter asked Obama if ordinary Americans would have to give up anything in exchange for better, more widely available care. Obama’s answer: “They’re going to have to give up paying for things that don’t make them healthier.” Hooray! Something for nothing! He may as well have said, “Here’s a magic pill that will make all your problems go away.”

Obama’s plan is to get a tiny portion of the American public—the wealthy—to pay higher taxes for the benefit of the majority. Hey, while we’re at it, let’s see if we can convince 1 percent of the population to bear the entire responsibility for fighting two open-ended wars that are supposedly in the interest of every American. It would just be too uncomfortable to tell the middle class that if they want something, they need to earn it themselves.

[See how the bailouts could have gone better.]

We‘re uninformed. The healthcare smackdown—sorry, “debate”—is Exhibits A, B, and C. The soaring cost of healthcare is a problem that affects most Americans. It’s shrinking paychecks, squeezing small businesses, bankrupting families and swelling the national debt. Yet outraged Americans seem most concerned about fictions like death panels and government-enforced euthanasia, while clinging to the myth that our current system of selective availability and perverse incentives somehow represents capitalist ideals. But let’s take a break from that burdensome issue to examine the likelihood that President Obama was born in a foreign country and hoodwinked America into believing he was eligible to run for president.

People who lack the sense to question Big Lies always end up in deep trouble. Being well informed takes work, even with the Internet. In a democracy, that’s simply a civic burden. If we’re too foolish or lazy to educate ourselves on healthcare, global warming, financial reform, and other complicated issues, then we’re signing ourselves over to special interests who see nothing wrong with plundering our national—and personal—wealth.

[See why postal-style healthcare might not be so bad.]

iCulture. We may be chastened by the recession, but Americans still believe they deserve the best of everything—the best job, the best healthcare, the best education for our kids. And we want it at a discount—or better yet, free—which brings us back to the usual disconnect between what we want and what we’re willing to pay for.

Rationing is a dirty word, so we can’t have a system that officially rations something as vital as healthcare or education. Instead, we have unacknowledged, de facto rationing that directs the most resources to those with the best connections, the most money, or the savvy to game the system. What keeps the rest of us content is the illusion that we, too, will be able to game the system someday—as long as the government doesn’t interfere.

Solutions that serve some public good—like Social Security and bank deposit insurance in the 1930s and Medicare in the 1960s—usually require everybody to give something to get something. If it works, the overall benefits outweigh the costs. Good programs leave individuals the option to pay more if they want more. Bad programs promise more than they can deliver. But often we don’t know that until it’s too late.

Four Problems That Could Sink America – Rick Newman, Flow Chart

Add comment September 3rd, 2009

Forever blowing bubbles

dpa

Ever wanted to know why bubbles are round? Or how bubbles can help architects solve problems? A new exhibition at the Phaeno Science Museum in Wolfsburg, Germany, is taking the childhood pursuit of bubble blowing to the next level. An exhibition called BubbleMania will answer all those questions and more. Visitors will have the opportunity to blow giant bubbles, attend a scientific lecture on bubbles and watch a “bubble magician” at work, making necklaces out of bubbles and even blowing square bubbles. The exhibition opens on August 27.

Add comment August 25th, 2009

Socialism in America

Socialism in America

A great deal has been made in recent weeks about Ronald Reagan’s critique of nationalized or socialized health care from 1961: We can go back a bit further, though, and take a look at an intriguing piece from 1848, a dialogue on socialism and the French Revolution and the relationship of socialism to democracy, which includes Alexis de Tocqueville’s critique of socialism in general…

Add comment August 22nd, 2009

Scaling new heights

REUTERS

Indonesians in Jakarta clamber to the top of greased poles to reach prizes hung at the top of them during a game played to celebrate the country’s Independence Day on Aug. 17. The anniversary marks the 64th year of the country’s independence from the Netherlands.

Add comment August 18th, 2009

Hanging in mid air

AFP

Members of the “La Fura dels Baus” dance company from Spain, perform at the Giant Street Theatre in Budapest, Hungary. The 17th Island Festival is one of the largest cultural festivals in Europe and takes place on an island in the middle of the Danube river.

Add comment August 17th, 2009

Is Obama running out of time?

Is Obama running out of time?

Godfrey Hodgson | 12 August 2009

Barack Obama’s stalled healthcare-reform plan reveals how crucial features of the American political system operate. Read more…

Add comment August 17th, 2009

High Flyers for Freedom

REUTERS

A Palestinian boy flies a kite during a festival on the beach of Khan Younis, south of the Gaza Strip. The festival was organized by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). In July this year, thousands of children in the same area set a new world record for number of kites flown simultaneously during a similar event also organized by the UN agency, which provides aid to Palestinian reufgees.

Add comment August 15th, 2009

Live long and be prosperous!

REUTERS

If the length of the train of this wedding dress represents how long the love between the happy couple will last, then this bride and groom should certainly expect to be growing old together. The aerial shot taken in China’s Jilin province shows the longest wedding train in the world, measuring more then 2 kilometers.

Add comment August 13th, 2009

Comparing the Current Recession and the “1980-82 Recession”

At least one observer has argued that the current recession is not as bad as that of the 1980-82 recession, when those two separate recessions (1980Q1-1980Q3; 1981Q3-1982Q4) are considered as one (see [1] [2]). Here is my interpretation of this assertion, updated to use the latest GDP data, and normalizing (log) GDP on the recession start dates.

Figure 1: Log GDP relative to 2007Q4 (blue), log forecasted GDP relate to 2007Q4 (teal), and log GDP relative to 1980Q1 (red). Source: BEA GDP 2009Q2 advance (July 2009), WSJ survey of forecasters (July 2009), NBER, and author’s calculations.

Notice that, using the WSJ mean survey forecast from early July, the current downturn will exact a bigger (percentage) output loss than the 1980Q1-1982Q4 recession; if we assume the current recession trough ends up being 2009Q2, then the cumulative loss relative to previous peak will be 9.6 percentage points, while that for the “1980-82 recession” will be 2.5 percentage points.

Originally published at Econbrowser and reproduced here with the author’s permission.

Add comment August 12th, 2009

Quiz: Where is the most expensive house in the world?

The Most Expensive House in The World

The German island of Sylt has long been a playground for the country’s rich and famous. Prices there, though, have gotten out of hand of late. In the city of Kampen, the world’s most expensive home is now for sale — and it’s a lot smaller than you might think.

Add comment August 9th, 2009

A lot of hot air!

Getty Images

A balloonist in Bristol, southwest England checks the ropes as he prepares for take-off Friday. Bristol’s annual International Balloon Fiesta is Europe’s largest hot air balloon festival and attracts thousands of spectators. This year’s perfect weather conditions allowed more than 100 balloons to rise into the skies above the city on the river Avon.

Add comment August 8th, 2009

Keeping Cool

DPA

These are challenging times for penguins living in Germany, where temperatures soared above 30 degrees Celsius on Wednesday. Many visitors probably wouldn’t have minded joining this one trying to cool off in Frankfurt Zoo.

Add comment August 6th, 2009

Latin American Outlook

Bertrand Delgado and Italo Lombardi analyze economic events in Latin America for the weeks between July 20^th and the 31^st and their impact on macroeconomic conditions moving forward. They focus on monetary policy, inflation, economic activity, labor dynamics, trade accounts, industrial production, and fiscal data. Please read: Latin America – The Week Ahead July 27– 31.

Add comment August 3rd, 2009

Is Iceland is model?

In Iceland Proves That in a Financial Crisis, Breaking Glass and Trashing Currency is a Good Remedy, Yves Smith looks at Iceland, which has been weathering a dramatic devaluation and is recovering remarkably well.

Add comment August 3rd, 2009

Investing Rules For the “End of Civilization”

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) — In his 2008 bestseller, “Wealth, War and Wisdom,” hedge fund manager Barton Biggs warns that investors must “assume the possibility of a breakdown of the civilized infrastructure.”

And to prepare for a breakdown of civilization, “your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food … It should be well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc.” Bloomberg Markets suggested that by “etc.” he meant guns, as Biggs added “a few rounds over the approaching brigands’ heads would probably be a compelling persuader that there are easier farms to pillage.”

That warning’s not from a hippie radical. Biggs was a respected Wall Street guru at Morgan Stanley for 30 years. As the chief global strategist Institutional Investor magazine put him on its “All-America Research Team” 10 times. Smart Money said: “Biggs is without question the premier prognosticator on the international scene and a mover of markets from Argentina to Hong Kong.”

Biggs is advising America’s wealthy elite. But what about Main Street Americans? Investors often ask me where to invest today, even Bogleheads and investors committed to the Lazy Portfolio strategy. They see the Goldman Conspiracy manipulating this rally. That worries many.

What do you believe? What value do you give to “the future.” First, answer these three questions: What’s your investment strategy if you know you might die on Dec. 21, 2012, or possibly this year after getting a negative diagnosis from an oncologist or maybe not till 2050 when the United Nations says global population will be 50% higher (from 6 billion now to 9 billion), while demand for energy, oil, gas and coal doubles and the global supply of those commodities remains relatively constant.

Disaster films, terminal illnesses, 2050 and ‘The End’

Behavioral economists have answers. But your gut’s also good at predicting. So here’s what you’ll likely do:

1. You’ll go see the new disaster film, “2012″ about the end of the Mayan calendar. After all, it’s by the same director who “destroyed” the earth in “The Day After Tomorrow,” “Independence Day” and “Godzilla.” No new investment strategies, but a must-see film, a great catharsis and distraction.
2. If you had a terminal illness, the future is here, now. There’s no tomorrow. You’re concerned about protecting loved ones and future generations with what you have, and enjoying time with them.
3. But how to invest for the “End of Civilization” coming around 2050? The next 40 years will be confusing: Accelerating struggles between aging populations and disenchanted youth, soaring commodity prices, global warming, peak oil, food shortages, famine, blackouts, rationing, civil disorder, increasing crime, worldwide jihads, riots, anarchy and other dark scenarios of a tomorrow with “warfare defining human life.”

Yes, that’s how doomsayers label the worst-case scenario. It also must be what Ultra-Conservative-Guru Biggs worries about in his darker moments.

So back to the question: What will Main Street investors do? Here again, even with the planet’s survival threatened, they’ll go watch “2012,” be entertained, experience a catharsis, feel relieved, and afterwards, have dinner, slip back into denial. And later, they’ll vote against anything that offers solutions to future problems, especially if it raises taxes.

Why? Very simple: Our “Brains Aren’t Wired to Fear the Future,” writes New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof. We’re wired to respond to crises, while pushing off the real big problems (health care, Social Security, etc.)

That’s basic behavioral economics: Over tens of thousands of years, evolution has programmed our brains so that collectively we will behave counter-productive with the future, making an “End of Civilization” scenario inevitable, a foregone conclusion, a self-fulfilling prophecy. Why? Because our brains are handicapped, we are literally incapable of acting soon enough to solve the problem.

Six simple rules

But there must be a very small percentage of you out there with a desire to make your remaining days on Earth as pleasant as possible for you and your loved ones. So here are “Six New Rules till the End of Civilization 2050.” If they don’t scare you, hopefully they’ll amuse you. Or better yet, wake you up, maybe get you into action … before it’s too late … before your grandkids are fighting over what little is left:

Read the rest Investing Rules For the “End of Civilization” – Paul Farrell, MarketWatch

Add comment July 29th, 2009

Print, baby, print!

It’s hard to imagine that the monetary policy talk can get any nuttier, but we’ve likely only just begun. After all, despite the Federal Reserve growing its balance sheet by 140 percent and dropping rates essentially to zero, the bankruptcies just keep on coming. Ex-Fed governor Wayne Angell told Larry Kudlow’s CNBC audience, “monetary policy always works!” Although Angell does stipulate that it takes time before the tromping on the monetary gas pedal will spin the economic tires and spray the prosperity gravel.

But good grief, the Fed started cutting rates in September 2007, dropping the federal-funds rate from 5.25 percent to 4.75 percent, and it was cut, cut, cut until daddy set the target rate at 0 to .25 percent in December of last year. In the meantime, one trillion dollars has been added to the M-2 money supply.

Despite all this money creation, Circuit City, Sharper Image, Goody’s, Gottschalk’s, Comp USA, Levitz Furniture, Chrysler, General Motors, General Properties, and — most recently — Eddie Bauer have filed for bankruptcy protection. And personal bankruptcy filings are up in every state and soaring in Nevada, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Indiana, and Michigan.

In May, forty-eight states had more people out of work than in the previous month or year, with the national unemployment rate increasing from 8.9 percent to 9.4 percent. Moreover, California, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, and South Carolina had their highest rates of unemployment on record. Maybe Mr. Angell will change his mind when he gets laid off. Just how long are we supposed to wait for this monetary magic to work?

Now the word is that zero-percent interest rates are just too darn high. That’s why we haven’t seen a reinflation of bubble America. The Financial Times reports the existence of a Federal Reserve staff memorandum that makes the case for a negative-five-percent federal-funds rate. Meanwhile, Japanese authorities are toying with the idea of outlawing cash in their country. Despite using every fiscal trick in the book and keeping interest rates at zero percent for a decade, that economy has been mired in a postbubble depression. So the current theory “would suggest that nominal interest rates of [negative four] percent might be closer to what is required to rescue the economy from another deflationary spiral,” reported the Times Online.

The talking heads and policy wonks are trying to tell us that we’re not borrowing enough, and that’s why we’re in a depression and why the Japanese economy has been depressed for more than a decade.

However, the real reason we’re in a depression is because businesses and individuals borrowed too much and invested it poorly. Economist Murray Rothbard explained that a depression is the recovery stage: “The liquidation of unsound businesses, the ‘idle capacity’ of the malinvested plant, and the ‘frictional’ unemployment of original factors that must suddenly and en masse shift to lower stages of production — these are the chief hallmarks of the depression stage.”

That’s why monetary policy isn’t working and won’t work. People must save and pay off their debts. The malinvestments of the boom must be liquidated. New liquidity and zero-percent interest rates will only create new malinvestments, not a sound economy.

But you won’t hear that on TV or read it in the New York Times. The Nobel Prize–winning economist and Gray Lady columnist Paul Krugman is now worried about the “paradox of thrift,” the theory that, when consumers save too much en masse, the economy is worse off because there is not enough consumption.

For those not familiar with Krugman’s policy suggestions, he wrote back in August 2002 that “[t]o fight this recession, the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.”

Sir Alan followed Krugman’s advice, and look where we are now. More of the same will only create more financial pain.

Douglas French is president of the Mises Institute and author of Early Speculative Bubbles & Increases in the Money Supply. See his tribute to Murray Rothbard. Send him mail. See his article archives. Comment on the blog.

Add comment July 25th, 2009

Here’s the clincher: Year-to-date, Dow Jones stocks are off 7 percent, while China stocks are up 71 percent

Washington’s enormous expansion of the government’s spending share of GDP to over 40 percent — including Bailout Nation, TARP, and government takeovers in numerous industries — is eerily reminiscent of Old Europe’s old policies. In a twist of irony, Europe seems to be moving toward a lower-tax-and-spend-and-regulate, Ronald Reagan–type approach, while we in the U.S. are regressing to the failed socialist model of Old Europe. This makes no sense.

Here’s the clincher: Year-to-date, Dow Jones stocks are off 7 percent, while China stocks are up 71 percent. The world index is up 4 percent. Emerging markets are up 25 percent. They’re all beating us. None of this is good.

We’re going the wrong way. That’s why stock markets are not voting for the United States anymore.

Washington Is Going the Wrong Way – Larry Kudlow, CNBC

Add comment July 14th, 2009

We’ve Wiped Out All The New Jobs Of The 21st Century

What’s the best way to express just how bad the job market is? You could look at the soaring unemployment rate, or perhaps the ever-shortening work week. How about this: Total nonfarm payrolls, notes economist James Hamilton, are now back to where they were in mid 2000, and in a few months they’ll certainly be back to pre-2000 levels. 21st century job creation: gone.

All Jobs Created in the 21st Century Are Now Gone – Clusterstock

Add comment July 10th, 2009