hybrid bus green bus bigAn energy analyst is outraged that taxpayer dollars are being used for a bailout of the bus industry that’s comparable to the now defunct “cash for clunkers” program.

National Journal reports the Transportation Department’s Transit Investments for Greenhouse Gas and Energy Reduction (TIGGER) program has spent nearly half its $100-million grant budget to replace diesel buses with hybrid-electric and fully electric models.

The “TIGGER” grants are part of President Obama’s $787 billion stimulus program and are designed to serve two purposes: stimulate the economy and clean the environment.

Proponents of the “cash for buses” program say it will create jobs and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but Nick Loris, a researcher in energy and environment issues at The Heritage Foundation, says that is not accurate.

Nick Loris (Heritage)“What they’re saying is that [these buses] have better fuel economy and there’s less maintenance, and that may be the case. These buses may be better — but if that’s the case, they shouldn’t need taxpayer dollars to help these companies fund them,” Loris continues. “Bus companies can make those decisions on their own if these buses are economically competitive with diesel buses.”

A transit operator with Connecticut’s Bureau of Public Transportation says his agency would not have invested in the hybrid buses if the federal money was not available.  He notes the hybrids are “not dollar-for-dollar cost-effective in hard cash.”

 

Jersey News:

 

Before I knew anything about the finance industry, if someone had thrown out the name “Blackrock” I would have conjured up a scene from the Wild West, a cattle rancher hiring a gunslinger to roust out the sheep farmers and take control of the town. But now, of course, I know that BlackRock is a financial behemoth with $1.5 trillion in assets under management — soon to be over $2 trillion due to its purchase of Barclay’s asset management business. But of more note than its asset footprint is the mantle BlackRock is gradually assuming as the arbiter of value.

BlackRock won a set of contracts to provide analytics for the New York Fed’s trillion dollar mortgage-backed purchase program. Now, BlackRock may end up with an NAIC contract to analyze the mortgage-backed securities in insurers’ portfolios.

I do not mean to diminish BlackRock’s laudable role in assisting in many ways with the financial crisis – coming forward when a number of other large firms demurred. But as one contract is piled on another, their models will become the standard for pricing mortgages, complex derivatives and structured products. Unlike the money management business, which is competitive and relatively transparent, this is a monopoly ready for the making. A monopoly because the more institutions, industry associations and regulatory bodies that employ their services, the more they become the de facto standard. Over time, auditors, clients and equity holders – perhaps even regulators – will start saying, “Well, it is nice to see what your internal models have to say about your portfolio value, but we want your portfolio benchmarked using the BlackRock model.” A BlackRock seal of approval; BlackRock, the JD Powers of portfolio quality.

Here are the problems with this:

First, of course, is the well-known issue of allowing a private enterprise to have monopoly control of a utility – in this case a de facto replacement of the rating agencies (not a bad thing in itself) by putting one firm in the position of providing the benchmark pricing of financial products. Second, there are natural conflicts of interest given that BlackRock is also the asset manager for the New York Fed’s Maiden Lane portfolios and has raised over half a billion in private capital to purchase legacy securities as part of PPIP. (Though I should add that BlackRock is aware of this issue and has stated the firm has strict internal controls preventing any valuation services from being gamed by its investment arm. Which should make us all feel a lot better).

But the most critical problem is that its approach is at variance with the broadly held view that we need to have transparency in the derivatives markets because, unlike, say, RiskMetrics, BlackRock does not share the specifications of the models it employs. We don’t really know what these models are doing. Valuations based on a black-box BlackRock model, or, for that matter, anyone else’s black box model, do not get us the transparency we need. I don’t care what a trading desk uses for its decision making, but when it comes to valuations that carry beyond the firm, we need to be able to see and critique the models that are being used. If a model is to become a standard, if it is going to be used for regulatory or other benchmarking purposes, it should be transparent and subject to peer review.

Which gets to a simple point: If we want to go down the path of standardized valuation and comparability in these complex portfolios, we need open derivatives models. One thing we should have learned from the rating agency debacle is that even if we put aside the issues of monopoly power and conflict of interest, we cannot stop with having the proprietor of such models say, “Trust me, I know what I’m doing.”


Originally published at Rick Bookstaber’s Blog

 

Paul Romer wants to make sure that we understand the importance of Elinor Ostrom’s “work on one of the deepest issues in economics”:

Skyhooks versus Cranes: The Nobel Prize for Elinor Ostrom. by Paul Romer: Most economists think that they are building cranes that suspend important theoretical structures from a base that is firmly grounded in first principles. In fact, they almost always invoke a skyhook, some unexplained result without which the entire structure collapses. Elinor Ostrom won the Nobel Prize in Economics because she works from the ground up, building a crane that can support the full range of economic behavior.

When I started studying economics in graduate school, the standard operating procedure was to introduce both technology and rules as skyhooks. If we assumed a particular set of rules and technologies,… then we economists could describe what people would do. Sometimes we compared different sets of rules that a “social planner” might impose… Crucially, we never even bothered to check that people would actually follow the rules we imposed.

A typical conclusion was that rules that assign property rights and rules that let people trade lead to good outcomes. What’s the skyhook? That people will follow the rules. Why would they respect the property rights of someone else? … We might have had in mind something like this: police officers will arrest people who don’t follow the rules. But this is just another skyhook. Who are these police officers? Why do they follow rules? … Elinor showed that there are lots of important cases where people follow rules about ownership without police officers. One of the central challenges in understanding failures of economic development is that in many places, police officers don’t follow the rules they are meant to enforce.

Elinor’s fieldwork, followed up by her experimental work, pointed us in exactly the right direction. To understand BOTH why we don’t need police officers in some cases AND why police officers don’t follow the rules in other cases, we have to expand models of human preferences to include a contingent taste for punishing others. In reaching this conclusion, she … spelled out the program that economists should follow. To make the rules … emerge as an equilibrium outcome instead of a skyhook, economists must extend our models of preferences and gather field and experimental evidence on the nature of these preferences.

Economists who have become addicted to skyhooks … think that they are doing deep theory but are really just assuming their conclusions… If we fail to explore rules in greater depth, economists will have little to say about the most pressing issues facing humans today – how to improve the quality of bad rules that cause needless waste, harm, and suffering.

Cheers to the Nobel committee for recognizing work on one of the deepest issues in economics. Bravo to the political scientist who showed that she was a better economist than the economic imperialists who can’t tell the difference between assuming and understanding.

Related Article:

Ostrom & Williamson Win “Ironic” Nobel in Economics by Barry Ritholtz


 

The health-insurance industry has finally revealed itself for what it is. Background: The industry hates the idea that’s emerged from the Senate Finance Committee of lowering penalties on younger and healthier people who don’t buy insurance. Relying on an analysis by PricewaterhouseCoopers, insurers say this means new enrollees will be older and less healthy — which will drive up costs. And, says the industry, these costs will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher premiums. Proposed taxes on high-priced “Cadillac” policies will also be passed on to consumers. As a result, premiums will rise faster and higher than the government projects.

It’s an eleventh-hour bombshell.

But the bomb went off under the insurers. The only reason these costs can be passed on to consumers in the form of higher premiums is because there’s not enough competition among private insurers to force them to absorb the costs by becoming more efficient. Get it? Health insurers have just made the best argument yet about why a public insurance option is necessary.

Right now they run their markets and set their prices, and pass on any increased costs directly to consumers. That’s what they’re threatening to do if the legislation attempts to squeeze, even slightly, the colossal profits they plan to make off of thirty million new paying customers.

They want every penny of those profits. They demand every cent. And if the government dares raise their costs a tad higher than they expected when they first signed on to support the bill, they’ll pass those costs on to consumers in the form of higher premiums. They can carry out their threat only because they have unaccountable, untrammeled market power.

But they’ve now hoisted themselves on their own insured petard. They’ve exposed themselves. If they had to compete with a public insurance plan, they couldn’t get away with this threat. They couldn’t pass on the extra costs. They’d have to compete with a public insurance option that forced them to give consumers the best deals possible.

Now’s the time for Senate Finance Committee and the White House to say to the insurance industry: You want to play hardball? Okay. We’ll play it, too. You didn’t want a public insurance option. That was one of your conditions for supporting the bill. You wanted gigantic profits from having thirty million new paying customers and the market to yourself. We agreed because we wanted your support and were afraid of the negative ads and hurricane of opposition you could finance. But you’re even greedier than we imagined. And now you’ve demonstrated that greed to the American people. They don’t want to turn over even more of their hard-earned money to you. So, insurance companies, we’ve got news for you. We’re going to make sure Americans have the freedom to choose a public insurance option that’s cheaper and better, and you’re going to have to work hard to keep them your customers.


Originally published at Robert Reich’s Blog

 

Summary:  The US dollar is falling in value vs. most other currencies and gold.  As usual, much of the material in the mainstream media about this important economic trend is misleading or wrong.  It is potentially both bane and boon.  Which depends upon us.

An excellent summary of the situation:  ”Misguided Monetary Mentalities“, Paul Krugman, 11 October 2009 — Excerpt:

The truth is that the falling dollar is good news. For one thing, it’s mainly the result of rising confidence: the dollar rose at the height of the financial crisis as panicked investors sought safe haven in America, and it’s falling again now that the fear is subsiding. And a lower dollar is good for U.S. exporters, helping us make the transition away from huge trade deficits to a more sustainable international position.

Contents

  1. Why is the US dollar falling in value?
  2. Is a falling dollar inevitable?
  3. Is a weaker dollar bad for us?
  4. What should the US do about the dollar?
 

From the Wall Street Journal:

Borrow from the Federal Reserve at zero and lend to Treasury for a profit.  That’s some racket.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have announced that the recession is over. Now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken the 10,000 mark, we’ll surely be hearing assurances that economic growth is here to stay. But the credit markets are in much worse shape than some indicators suggest.

 

Public trust has economic consequences, by Howard Davies, Commentary, Project Syndicate: Public trust in financial institutions, and in the authorities that are supposed to regulate them, was an early casualty of the financial crisis. That is hardly surprising, as previously revered firms revealed that they did not fully understand the very instruments they dealt in or the risks they assumed. … But … if this loss of trust persists, it could be costly for us all.

As Ralph Waldo Emerson remarked, “Our distrust is very expensive.” The Nobel laureate Kenneth Arrow made the point in economic terms almost 40 years ago: “It can be plausibly argued that much of the economic backwardness in the world can be explained by the lack of mutual confidence.”

Indeed, much economic research has demonstrated a powerful relationship between the level of trust in a community and its aggregate economic performance. Without mutual trust, economic activity is severely constrained. …

So if it is true that trust in financial institutions – and in the governments that oversee them – has been damaged by the crisis, we should care a lot, and we should be devising responses which seek to rebuild that trust. …

In the United States,… a … systematic, independent survey promoted by economists at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business … did show a sharp fall in trust in late 2008 and early 2009, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

That fall in confidence affected banks, the stock market, and the government and its regulators. Furthermore, the survey showed that … if your trust in the market and in the way it is regulated fell sharply, you were less likely to deposit money in banks or invest in stocks.

So falling trust had real economic consequences. Fortunately, the latest survey, published in July this year, shows that trust in banks and bankers has begun to recover, and quite sharply. This has been positive for the stock market.

There is also a little more confidence in the government’s response and in financial regulation than there was at the end of last year. The latter point, which no doubt reflects the Obama administration’s attempts to reform the dysfunctional system it inherited, is particularly important, as the sharpest declines in investment intentions were among those who had lost confidence in the government’s ability to regulate.

It would seem that rebuilding confidence in the Federal Reserve and the Securities and Exchange Commission is economically more important than rebuilding trust in Citibank or AIG. Continuing disputes in Congress about the precise details of reform could, therefore, have an economic cost if a perception that the system will not be overhauled gains ground. …

Researchers at the European University Institute in Florence and UCLA recently demonstrated that there is a relationship between trust and individuals’ income. …

The data show, intriguingly, that … if you diverge markedly from society’s average level of trust, you are likely to lose out, either because you are so distrustful of others that you miss out on opportunities for investment and mutually beneficial exchange, or because you are so trusting that you leave yourself open to being cheated and abused. …

Maybe we should trust each other more – but not too much.

 

How did the Dow break 10,000 when the rest of the economy is in the toilet?

1. Corporate earnings are up — mainly because companies have been cutting costs. Payrolls comprise 70 percent of most companies’ costs, which means companies have been slashing jobs. In the end, this is a self-defeating strategy. If workers don’t have jobs or are afraid of losing them, they won’t buy, and company profits will disappear. 2. Federal borrowing has filled the gap that consumers and businesses created when the latter began to reduce their debt. Federal debt, in other words, has kept the economy from tanking. Can’t keep up forever, though.

3. With such horrid employment numbers, Wall Street figures the Fed will keep interest rates low for some time, and continue to flood the economy with money. That’s good news for the Street because it means money stays cheap — and with cheap money the Street can make lots of bets on almost everything under the sun and moon. As a result, the Street’s earnings are way up. But this, too, is temporary. At some point the Fed is going to worry about inflation and a falling dollar.

4. Investors of all stripes want to get in early and ride the wave. Pension funds, mutual funds, and other institutional investors figure the bull market has more oomph in it because, well, other investors will jump in. Think Ponzi scheme. Nice for now, but watch out if you’re one of the last in.

In other words, this is all temporary fluff, folks. Anyone who hasn’t learned by now that there’s almost no relationship between the Dow and the real economy deserves to lose his or her shirt in the Wall Street casino.


Originally published at Robert Reich’s Blog

 

Washington Post Crashed-and-Burned-and-Smoking Watch: …[The Washington Posts's] Fred Hiatt this morning:

Re-Stimulating. Unemployment is bad. More fiscal debt might be worse: At 9.8 percent, the unemployment rate is higher than it has been since it hit 10.1 percent in June 1983. Since the recession began 21 months ago, the economy has shed nearly 7 million jobs. Whole industries — cars, housing, finance — have been devastated and may never recover fully. Nevertheless, White House economists reported in September that “employment is estimated to be between 600,000 and 1.1 million higher than it would otherwise have been” because of the Obama administration’s stimulus plan and other government policies, especially the Fed’s monetary expansion. While no one can prove or disprove that — much less apportion credit between fiscal and monetary policy — basic economics suggests that things might have been even worse if the government had done nothing…

It does not necessarily follow, however, that the economy needs more stimulus now. Government has managed to blunt the recession, but at a cost — a higher national debt burden, which future Americans must pay off by working harder and saving more than they otherwise would have…

Ummm…

So far the stimulus spendout has been some $160 billion. The midpoint estimate by Christy Romer and company is that GDP is now 1% higher than it would have been otherwise. That higher level of production and employment than we would have seen otherwise is going to lead to the collection of an extra $80 billion in tax revenues. That means that the net effect of the $160 billion we have pushed out the door has been to raise the national debt by $80 billion. The Treasury can now borrow through its TIPS program for 20 years at an interest rate of 2% plus inflation. That means that taxes in the future have to be higher by $1.6 billion per year–by $5 per person per year.

Thus the stimulus package so far:

  • Incur an extra forward-looking tax burden per person of 1.3 cents per day…
  • Get an extra 800,000 people productively at work–and get all the stuff they make and do–this year…

That looks like a very good deal: buying an extra productive job for an American today at a cost of $2000 per year in higher taxes looking forward–particularly when you think that some of those extra jobs build up our productive capacity to make us richer in the future as well.

The stimulus arithmetic suggests we should be doing more of it. The benefit-cost ratio at current stimulus spending levels is very good…

But nobody on Fred Hiatt’s staff realized this. For nobody on Fred Hiatt’s staff thinks that doing any arithmetic is part of their job description. Indeed, nobody on Fred Hiatt’s staff is capable of doing any arithmetic at all.

 

Ismail Dalla and Heiko Hesse note that as the financial crisis has curtailed the ability of borrowers in emerging markets to find funds abroad, they have turned to raising capital in domestic markets. Local-currency bond markets had already grown tremendously since the crises of the 1990s. Dalla and Hesse say that deepening local-currency bond markets should now be a top priority for emerging economies. See Rapidly Growing Local-Currency Bond Markets Offer a Viable Alternative Funding Source for Emerging-Market Issuers.

 
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Over the past year the global economy has experienced a massive contraction, the deepest since the Great Depression of the 1930s. But this spring, economists started talking of “green shoots” of recovery and that optimistic assessment quickly spread to Wall Street. More recently, on the anniversary of the Lehman Brothers crash, Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, officially blessed this consensus by declaring the recession is “very likely over”.

The future is fundamentally uncertain, which always makes prediction a rash enterprise. That said there is a good chance the new consensus is wrong. Instead, there are solid grounds for believing the US economy will experience a second dip followed by extended stagnation that will qualify as the second Great Depression. Some indications to this effect are already rolling in with unexpectedly large US job losses in September and the crash in US automobile sales following the end of the “cash-for-clunkers” programme.

That rosy scenario thinking has returned to Wall Street should be no surprise. Wall Street profits from rising asset prices on which it charges a management fee, from deal-making on which it earns advisory fees, and from encouraging retail investors to buy stock, which boosts transaction fees. Such earnings are far larger when stock markets are rising, which explains Wall Street’s genetic propensity to pump the economy.

As for mainstream economists, their theoretical models were blind-sided by the crisis and only predict recovery because of the assumptions in the models. According to mainstream theory, it is assumed that full employment is a gravity point to which the economy is pulled back.

Empirical econometric models are equally questionable. They too predict gradual recovery but that is driven by patterns of reversion to trends found in past data. The problem, as investment professionals say, is that “past performance is no guide to future performance”. The economic crisis represents the implosion of the economic paradigm that has ruled US and global growth for the past thirty years. That paradigm was based on consumption fuelled by indebtedness and asset price inflation, and it is done.

There is a simple logic to why the economy will experience a second dip. That logic rests on the economics of deleveraging which inevitably produces a two-step correction. The first step has been worked through, and it triggered a financial crisis that caused the worst recession since the Great Depression. The second step has only just begun.

Deleveraging can be understood through a metaphor in which a car symbolises the economy. Borrowing is like stepping on the gas and accelerates economic activity. When borrowing stops, the foot comes off the pedal and the car slows down. However, the car’s trunk is now weighed down by accumulated debt so economic activity slows below its initial level.

With deleveraging, households increase saving and re-pay debt. This is the second step and it is like stepping on the brake, which causes the economy to slow further, in a motion akin to a double dip. Rapid deleveraging, as is happening now, is the equivalent of hitting the brakes hard. The only positive is it reduces debt, which is like removing weight from the trunk. That helps stabilise activity at a new lower level, but it does not speed up the car, as economists claim.

Unfortunately, the car metaphor only partially captures current conditions as it assumes the braking process is smooth. Yet, there has already been a financial crisis and the real economy is now infected by a multiplier process causing lower spending, massive job loss, and business failures. That plus deleveraging creates the possibility of a downward spiral, which would constitute a depression.

Such a spiral is captured by the metaphor of the Titanic, which was thought to be unsinkable owing to its sequentially structured bulkheads. However, those bulkheads had no ceilings, and when the Titanic hit an iceberg that gashed its side, the front bulkheads filled with water and pulled down the bow. Water then rippled into the aft bulkheads, causing the ship to sink.

The US economy has hit a debt iceberg. The resulting gash threatens to flood the economy’s stabilising mechanisms, which the economist Hyman Minsky termed “thwarting institutions”.

Unemployment insurance is not up to the scale of the problem and is expiring for many workers. That promises to further reduce spending and aggravate the foreclosure problem.

States are bound by balanced budget requirements and they are cutting spending and jobs. Consequently, the public sector is joining the private sector in contraction.

The destruction of household wealth means many households have near-zero or even negative net worth. That increases pressure to save and blocks access to borrowing that might jump-start a recovery. Moreover, both the household and business sector face extensive bankruptcies that amplify the downward multiplier shock and also limit future economic activity by destroying credit histories and access to credit.

Lastly, the US continues to bleed through the triple haemorrhage of the trade deficit that drains spending via imports, off-shoring of jobs, and off-shoring of new investment. This haemorrhage was evident in the cash-for-clunkers program in which eight of the top ten vehicles sold had foreign brands. Consequently, even enormous fiscal stimulus will be of diminished effect.

The financial crisis created an adverse feedback loop in financial markets. Unparalleled deleveraging and the multiplier process have created an adverse feedback loop in the real economy. That is a loop which is far harder to reverse, which is why a second Great Depression remains a real possibility.

Thomas Palley is former chief economist of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission and  is currently Schwartz Economic Growth Fellow at the New America Foundation

A Second Great Depression Is Still Possible Thomas Palley

 

One hundred and seventy-nine years ago, a short span in the life of a nation, the representatives of the American people, in arms against the British Crown, proclaimed on a new continent a new philosophy of government. After the end of the military struggle for independence this philosophy was set forth in detail, and with rare insight and erudition, in the Federalist Papers and finally embodied in the Constitution of the United States.

The Fourth of July could well be an occasion for getting a firm grasp on the principles on which the American Republic was founded. Our educational institutions have not coped adequately with the task of communicating these principles to students. I know from personal experience that it is possible to go through a first-rate preparatory school and an excellent college without being impressed by the sheer thrill of political and intellectual adventure associated with the launching of the United States as an independent nation.

For it was an adventure, about which there were many prophets of gloom and doom on the other side of the Atlantic and some in the newly emancipated colonies themselves. Here were thirteen sparsely populated states, more distant from each other in terms of travel and communication than New York now is from London or Tokyo, starting out as a new nation without institutions which most Europeans then regarded as essential to stability without a monarchy, an hereditary aristocracy, or an established national church.

It was easy to imagine a relapse into anarchy, followed by the emergence of a “strong man” as dictator. But apart from the tragic schism of the Civil War (slavery and the right of a state to secede from the Union were two issues which the Constitution left unsolved), the United States has enjoyed almost two centuries of ordered freedom, unmarred by plots, internal sedition and successful or unsuccessful coups d’état.

The ideal of self-government, first proclaimed for the three million Americans of 1776, scattered along the Atlantic fringe of the country, still works for 160 million Americans who have filled up a vast country. The debt which Americans today owe to the men who framed the institutions of the young Republic, to Washington and Jefferson, Hamilton and Madison, Adams and Jay, is beyond estimation.

These men sometimes differed among themselves; but when they differed, it was usually because they emphasized two aspects of a single political truth. The product of their collective wisdom, the United States Constitution, is a mechanism of extraordinarily delicate balance. So far as human wisdom could foresee dangers and provide safeguards, the individual is secured against oppression by the central government, the states are left in possession of all the functions which are not clearly the proper concern of the federal government, and the powers and limitations of the three branches of the federal government are so defined that no one of these branches can dominate the others and become all-powerful.

The Founding Fathers’ Forethought

No form of government devised in history was so careful to avoid the dangers of concentrated power and so favorable to letting the citizen go as far and as fast as his individual capacity would carry him, without state coddling, state regulation and state domination, which always go hand in hand. The Founding Fathers were mindful of the admonition voiced by one of the strongest and clearest political thinkers of the Revolution, John Adams:

The institutions now made in America will not wholly wear out for thousands of years. It is of the last importance, then, that they should begin right. If they set out wrong, they will never be able to return, unless it be by accident, to the right path.

Adams and Jefferson, Madison and Hamilton, and many of their colleagues were men of exceptional learning. They were steeped in the Greek and Latin classics, in the history of medieval and modern Europe, in British and French constitutional theory and practice. At the same time they were not cloistered scholars, but men of action, who played leading roles in overturning an old form of government and setting up a new one. As a result of this double capacity, they possessed a panoramic view of the rise and fall of states in the past combined with a clear, intimate knowledge of the special conditions of America.

A coherent body of ideas figures prominently in the philosophy of the founders of the American Republic and may be studied to advantage in the Federalist Papers. These ideas, incidentally, are not only of tremendous historical importance, but are of the utmost reality and vitality in our own time. For the noble ideal of liberty, the word most often used in the literature of the American Revolution, has been horribly perverted by fanatics and cynically misused by tyrants.

It was not only in Jacobin France that many crimes, as Madame Roland cried on the scaffold, were committed in the name of liberty. As Professor J. L. Talmon brings out in his erudite and stimulating book, The Rise of Totalitarian Democracy (Beacon Press), the ideological origins of Soviet communism are not entirely in the writings of Marx and Engels.

Robespierre and the French Jacobins, nourished on Rousseau and some of the less known collectivist thinkers of the eighteenth century, worked out a conception of a virtuous elite that was morally entitled to persuade the people — with the aid of the guillotine, and for the people’s own good, of course — to hold and express unanimous opinions which would coincide with those of the virtuous elite. This was the Model T version of modern communism, and fascism borrowed something in theory and a good deal in practice from communism.

Against all utopian conceptions, such as Rousseau’s “general will,” which would lead to an absolute concentration of governmental power, the Founding Fathers set their faces like flint. From study and personal experience they knew what liberty was and what it was not. They knew that a mob or political party operating without opposition could be just as cruel, just as destructive of freedom, as an absolute monarch or a military dictator. One of the clearest and profoundest statements of this deep distrust of concentrated state power is that of Madison in Number 47 of The Federalist:

The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of one, a few or many, and whether hereditary, self-appointed or elective, may justly he pronounced the very definition of tyranny.

Safeguards against Big Government

Far from deifying the state, the Founding Fathers regarded government as a necessary but dangerous instrument, which required many safeguards against abuse. Although they were accustomed, especially in New England, to the grassroots local democracy of the town meeting, they drew a careful distinction between the terms democracy and republic. Madison states the distinction in Number 14 of The Federalist:

In a democracy the people meet and exercise the government in person; in a republic they assemble and administer it by their representatives and agents. A democracy, consequently, will be confined to a small spot. A republic may be extended over a large region.

It is evident from the tone of The Federalist and other political writings of the time that the Founding Fathers were not devotees of unlimited majority rule or of over-strong government. They recognized that minorities and individuals have rights, such as life, liberty and property, which no majority may lawfully take away. It is significant that the Constitution devotes at least as much attention to telling the government what it may not do as to telling it what it may do, and its prohibitions are expressed in plain, unambiguous, uncompromising language:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press.

It is worthwhile to contrast these simple flat assurances with the long-winded resolutions of the United Nations on these subjects, full of escape clauses, weasel words, and loopholes for evasion. The Declaration of Independence takes its stand on “the laws of Nature and of Nature’s God”; and belief in natural law and inalienable rights which men possess independently of government and which no government may lawfully deny, withhold, or abridge is one of the cornerstones of American liberty.

In the literature of the American Revolution there is no demagogic attempt to set human rights against property rights. In the Federalist Papers and in other publications it is recognized that the right to acquire and own property is a basic and very important human right. As John Adams wrote:

The moment the idea is admitted into society that property is not as sacred as the laws of God, and that there is not a force of law and public justice to protect it, anarchy and tyranny commence.

Here, then, are the foundations of the free society of the American Republic: belief in natural law and inherent, inalienable human rights, intense distrust of any concentration of power in government, a suspicious attitude toward tyranny, whether of monarch or mob, including tyranny of the majority. Insofar as these foundations have been respected, America has prospered and grown great. It is where they have been most eroded and whittled away that some of the clearest danger signals in our national life are flying.

The Young French Visitor

Some of these danger signals were clear as early as the 1830s to the most profound and clear-sighted observer of the young American Republic, Alexis de Tocqueville. His work, Democracy in America, is a double masterpiece. It is a most penetrating study of the United States, its political institutions, its psychological traits, at the time of Andrew Jackson’s presidency, and it contains some strikingly accurate predictions of the American future. It is also a most searching study of the positive and negative sides of the leveling democracy which was beginning to prevail in the Western world. And it is written in a style that is always lucid and readable and often strikingly brilliant. For understanding the main political and psychological currents in the American history, de Tocqueville’s work is a worthy companion of the cogent, close-knit reasoning of the Federalist Papers.

As an observer of American life, de Tocqueville steers a middle course between sentimental gush and the squeamish repulsion which some cultivated Europeans like Mrs. Trollope felt for the free-and-easy frontier manners, with the copious expectorations of tobacco juice and the habit of calling all and sundry colonel or captain. He notes the self-reliant individualism of the American character:

The citizen of the United States is taught from his earliest infancy to rely upon his own exertions in order to resist the evils and the difficulties of life; he looks upon social authority with an eye of mistrust and anxiety, and he only claims its assistance when he is quite unable to shift without it.

Praised Local Initiative

As an authentic nineteenth-century liberal, de Tocqueville approves this tendency; he notes that the sum of private undertakings far exceeds all that the government could have done. He notes that there is no such thing as an American peasant and that although education is spread thinly, there are no pools of total illiteracy and stagnation. Again and again he praises the vitality of local initiative which builds excellent schools and churches and keeps the roads in good repair without any meddling interference from a centralized bureaucracy. And he pays to America of that time two compliments which are more impressive because he does not spare criticism on other points:

The European generally submits to a public officer because he represents a superior force, but to an American he represents a right. In America it may be said that no one renders obedience to man, but to justice and to law….

All commodities and ideas circulate throughout the Union as freely as in a country inhabited by one people. Nothing checks the spirit of enterprise…. The Union is as happy and free as a small people, and as glorious and strong as a great nation.

De Tocqueville is not blind to the fact that Americans possess the defects of their virtues. He notes a considerable downgrading of intelligence in high places since the formative years of the Republic. There is a memorable picture of the restless materialism which causes Americans to pursue illusions to the end of their days:

A native of the United States clings to this world’s goods as if he were certain never to die; and he is so hasty in grasping at all within his reach that one would suppose he was constantly afraid of not living long enough to enjoy them. He clutches everything, he holds nothing fast, but soon loosens his grasp to pursue fresh gratifications…. Death at length overtakes him, but it is before he is weary of his bootless chase of that complete felicity which is forever on the wing.

A source of fascination in de Tocqueville is his rare gift of accurate prediction. Some of his observations fit America, and the world, in the middle of the twentieth century even better than the conditions of his own time. There was no income tax in the America which de Tocqueville visited; but he foresaw the shape of things to come:

Universal suffrage invests the poor with the government of society…. Wherever the poor direct public affairs and dispose of the natural resources it appears certain that, as they profit by the expenditure of the State, they are apt to augment that expenditure…. I have no hesitation in predicting that, if the people of the United States is ever involved in serious difficulties, its taxation will speedily be increased to the rate of that which prevails in the greater part of the aristocracies and monarchies of Europe.

There is the famous and remarkable forecast of the era of the American-Russian Cold War:

There are, at the present time, two great nations in the world which seem to tend toward the same end, although they started from different points: I allude to the Russians and the Americans…. All other nations seem to have nearly reached their natural limits…but these are still in the act of growth…. The Anglo-American relies upon personal interest to accomplish his ends, and gives free scope to the unguided exertions and common sense of the citizens; the Russian centers all the authority of society in the single arm; the principal instrument o£ the former is freedom; of the latter servitude. Their starting point is different and their courses are not the same; yet each of them seems marked out by the will of heaven to sway the destinies of half the globe.

De Tocqueville was alarmed not by “excessive liberty” in the United States, but by inadequate securities against tyranny. For, like other nineteenth-century libertarians who were democrats only with reservations — like Burckhardt, Acton, Mill — he realized that there was danger in the tyranny of the majority and sensed that the dykes which the framers of the Constitution had erected against this kind of tyranny were being weakened by the upsurge of democracy in the raw.

He realized that the day of the absolute hereditary monarch and of the privileged aristocrat was gone; but he saw new perils to liberty on the horizon of the future. With remarkable perspicacity he foresaw two developments which became realities in the twentieth century: the totalitarian society of communism and fascism and the paternalistic Welfare State. Regarding the former, he noted the likelihood that

those hideous eras of Roman oppression, when the manners of the people were corrupted, their traditions obliterated, their habits destroyed, their opinions shaken and freedom, expelled from the laws, could find no refuge in the land

might recur. Certainly the crimes of a Stalin, a Hitler, a Mao Tse-tung, far exceed anything that could be laid to the charge of a legitimate ruler in the era of royal absolutism.

There’s never been a better time to remember the revolutionary and even libertarian roots of the American founding, and there’s no better guide to what this means in the narrative of the Colonial period than Murray Rothbard.

Still more vivid and eloquent is de Tocqueville’s imaginary sketch of a paternalistic state which would not practice the bloody oppression of dictators, but would reduce each nation “to nothing better than a flock of timid and industrious animals, of which the government is the shepherd,” that would undertake “to spare its subjects all the care of thinking and all the trouble of living.” The American Republic was, in the winged phrase of Lincoln, conceived in liberty.

But liberty is one of the most complex, as it is one of the most precious, of human conceptions. It flourishes best in the kind of equilibrium between government and citizen, individual and society, majority and minority which the Founding Fathers wrote into the Constitution. The dangers to true liberty vary from generation to generation; but it can never be maintained without constant struggle. There is no surer guide to the principles of political liberty than the Federalist Papers; no more penetrating and imaginative study of the forces that may wreck or sap liberty than de Tocqueville’s great classic.

There could be no better Fourth of July reading than some of the outstanding passages in both these works.

This article was originally published July 1955 in The Freeman.Download PDF An MP3 audio file of this article, read by Floy Lilley, is available for download.

 
The Associated Press

NJ soccer-only stadium to be crown jewel of MLS
The Associated Press
For the 15000 residents of the northern New Jersey town, which can be reached directly from lower Manhattan via the PATH commuter train, Red Bull Arena is
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Economic signs hurt NJ stocks
Asbury Park Press
The index, made up of 75 companies either headquartered at the Shore or with significant operations in New Jersey, was at 103.11 Friday at 5 pm,
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NJ group champions efficient land-use planning
Press of Atlantic City
Dianne Brake, president of PlanSmart NJ, said Thursday that issues such as transportation, economic development, environmental preservation and quality of
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GOVERNMENT: Risky business: States tax the rich at their peril
North County Times
The concern about millionaire flight has prompted some states, including New York, New Jersey and California, to increase the highest tax rates only
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Scrappiness is behind Sweeney’s Trenton rise
Philadelphia Inquirer
Now he is poised to become the Senate president, the second-most-powerful person in New Jersey’s government. He has almost surely won the job by relying on
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No takers at former BASF building
Dailyrecord.com
“Those vacancies represent more than empty space,” said Gil Medina, executive managing director of real estate developer Cushman & Wakefield of New Jersey
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State University of New York
Newsday
|more …are the biggest users of deicing fluid — JKF, O’Hare, Cleveland -Hopkins International, Newark Liberty International in New Jersey, Boston Logan
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Corzine to Repeal NJ Tax Increase Early If Economy Rebounds
Bloomberg
By Terrence Dopp Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) — New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine said he would repeal his temporary income-tax increase early if the economy rebounds.
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New York Times

In the Region | New Jersey
New York Times
With the economy still so shaky, all of the developers said they recognized that renters were searching beyond “the usual suspects,” as Mr. Moore put it
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BBC News

More US jobs lost than expected
BBC News
confidence data we had, we’re starting to see a pattern of weakness emerge,” said Kevin Caron, market strategist at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co in New Jersey.
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No More Excuses for Growing Rich- Poor Gap

Blaming Mao’s chaotic years for the slow pace of reform is wearing thin as the vast majority of Chinese remain poor while their leaders grow more powerful.

 

A quick economic rebound, capital inflows and better-than-expected corporate earnings have buoyed the Asian equity markets. Valuations have risen steadily though they remain below the peak levels of the boom years. The surge in markets like India, China, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Indonesia has raised concerns that the rally might be getting ahead of fundamentals.

Asian currencies will continue to appreciate as global risk appetite buoys the asset markets, the trade balances are cushioned and the U.S. dollar remains weak. But central banks’ aggressive intervention in the foreign exchange market will limit currency gains until exports recover. In 2010, countries like India, Indonesia, Singapore and South Korea might allow currency appreciation to control headline inflation.

The real estate sector, especially housing, has picked up since Q2 2009 in countries like China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam and South Korea due to attractive prices, favorable borrowing conditions under stimulus measures, and speculative activity fueled by capital inflows and liquidity. However, slow improvement in labor market conditions, any slowdown in risk appetite and government measures to curb speculation will negatively impact the real estate sector and prolong its recovery.

 

Due to the enormous cost and technology involved, less than a dozen people have had their DNA fully decoded, or “sequenced”, to date.

But IBM has come up with a method that could make this affordable for everyone – DNA sequencing could be more than a million times cheaper using chips with holes just three billionths of a metre wide, it says. Continue reading “IBM chips promise $100 DNA decoding”.

 

Markit’s Gavan Nolan wrote this CDS report
A sense of foreboding enveloped the credit markets last week. A plethora of economic indicators – leading and lagging – gave investors cause to question the V-shaped recovery being priced into credit spreads. More…

 

The Future of Investing
FT writers join major world figures in examining the implications of the credit crunch on our investment system.

 

“It was at Rome, on the 15th of October, 1764, as I sat musing amidst the ruins of the Capitol, while the barefooted friars were singing vespers in the Temple of Jupiter, that the idea of writing the decline and fall of the city first started to my mind.”

- Edward Gibbon

Warren Buffett famously says that people do not make money by betting against the US economy. But two years ago we decided to take a chance.

“We are short the United States of America,” we announced from the comfort and safety of our headquarters in London. “Sell its stocks. Sell its bonds. Sell its money. Sell its real estate. Sell the equity. Sell the debt. Sell everything.”

What we saw was an over-stretched empire getting ready to snap. But we were also allowing ourselves to be lazy. Rather than deconstruct the capital structure of the world’s largest economy, we decided to sell the whole damned thing.

All Hell broke loose in September 2008. Since then, US stocks have gone down about a third. Real estate too. Unemployment has doubled. Consumer prices are going down at the fastest rate since the ’50s. And the economy is in the worse recession since WWII.

Meanwhile, Americans’ per capita wealth has fallen from $172,000 in September from $212,000 two years earlier. And the UN reports that the quality of life in America has gone down too…from #5 on its list in 2000, it fell to #13 in 2007. No doubt it is below #20 now.

Buffett has lost billions betting on the US economy while our gold positions are handily up; gold was the most profitable major asset over the last ten years.

So you see, we were right; America was a sell two years ago.

-Bill Bonner

 

Here we go again:

‘We Need a Pan- European Financial Oversight Authority’

It seems likely that Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, will soon become the sole overseer of the country’s financial system in a bid to prevent the mistakes made during the financial crisis. German commentators argue that a pan-European oversight authority would make more sense.

 

At the height of the financial panic last fall Goldman Sachs became a bank holding company, which enabled it to borrow directly from the Federal Reserve.  It also became subject to supervision by the Federal Reserve Board (with the NY Fed on point) – hence the brouhaha over Steven Friedman’s shareholdings.

Goldman is also currently engaged in private equity investments in nonfinancial firms around the world, as seen for example in its recent deal with Geely Automotive Holdings in China (People’s Daily; CNBC).  US banks or bank holding companies would not generally be allowed to undertake such transactions - in fact, it is annoyed bankers who have asked me to take this up.

Would someone from the NY Fed kindly explain the precise nature of the waiver that has been granted to Goldman so that it can operate in this fashion?  If this is temporary, is it envisaged that Goldman will cease being a bank holding company, or that it will divest itself shortly of activities not usually allowed (and with good reason) by banks?  Or will all bank holding companies be allowed to expand on the same basis.  (The relevant rules appear to be here in general and here specifically; do tell me what I am missing.)

Increasingly, the issue of “too big to regulate” in the public interest is being brought up – an issue that has historically attracted the interest of the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division in sectors other than finance.  Should Goldman Sachs now be placed in this category?

Given that the Fed has slipped up so many times and in so many ways with regard to regulation over the past decade, and given the current debate on Capitol Hill, now might be a good time to get ahead of this issue.

In addition, there is the obvious carry trade (borrow cheaply; lend at higher rates) developing from cheap Fed dollar funding to the growing speculative frenzy in emerging markets, particularly China.  Are we heading for another speculative bubble that will end up damaging US bank balance sheets and all American taxpayers?

By Simon Johnson

A Short Question For Senior Officials Of The New York Fed Baseline Scenario

 

The Whole Foods founder talks about his Journal health-care op-ed that spawned a boycott, how he deals with unions, and why he thinks CEOs are overpaid.

John Mackey: Conscience of a Capitalist – Steve Moore, Wall Street Journal

 

The Supreme Court opens its new term Monday, marking what will likely prove a big year for business conflicts. Many cases with broad implications for companies and investors are on the docket, from suits dealing with fraud and antitrust allegations to questions of securities law. One of the most anticipated cases scheduled — a challenge to the patenting of a financial tool — could set a precedent for all patents of business methods.

In recent years, the Court has been very sympathetic toward business, and experts say the economic meltdown and the surge in public hostility toward corporate dealings aren’t likely to change that. But that doesn’t mean business always wins.

Here’s a look at six key cases coming before the court.

Supreme Court Cases Investors Should Watch – Jen Itzenson, SmartMoney

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