At least one observer has argued that the current recession is not as bad as that of the 1980-82 recession, when those two separate recessions (1980Q1-1980Q3; 1981Q3-1982Q4) are considered as one (see [1] [2]). Here is my interpretation of this assertion, updated to use the latest GDP data, and normalizing (log) GDP on the recession start dates.

mull11.gif
Figure 1: Log GDP relative to 2007Q4 (blue), log forecasted GDP relate to 2007Q4 (teal), and log GDP relative to 1980Q1 (red). Source: BEA GDP 2009Q2 advance (July 2009), WSJ survey of forecasters (July 2009), NBER, and author’s calculations.

Notice that, using the WSJ mean survey forecast from early July, the current downturn will exact a bigger (percentage) output loss than the 1980Q1-1982Q4 recession; if we assume the current recession trough ends up being 2009Q2, then the cumulative loss relative to previous peak will be 9.6 percentage points, while that for the “1980-82 recession” will be 2.5 percentage points.

Originally published at Econbrowser and reproduced here with the author’s permission.

 

The oversight panel — led by Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren — acknowledged the difficulty confronting Paulson and his team.

The report said while 18 of the 19 large institutions that underwent “stress tests” by the Federal Reserve in the spring probably are prepared to handle a downward turn in the economy, smaller banks would have a substantially more difficult time.

Those banks may need to raise an additional $12 billion in capital to guard against mortgage loans going bad, the report states.

Banks face continued stress from the billions of dollars in toxic mortgage assets still on their balance sheets, a congressionally appointed watchdog said Tuesday, something that could prompt the Treasury Department to expand its rescue programs. [Read More]

 

You can try to persuade James Hamilton that destroying productive physical capital is a way to improve the welfare of the average American, but you probably won’t succeed. See Cash for Clunkers: A Victim of its own Success?

 

the Global Macro EconoMonitor:
Could an Early Warning System have Predicted the Crisis? by Mark Thoma

Also:
China in Global Economic Recovery by Danny Quah

 

Adam S. Posen points out the important difference between capital from a persistent trade deficit that is utilized for investment versus capital that is used for consumption, and considers the consequences of America’s decade of wasteful over-consumption. See American Saving Is No Excuse for Schadenfreude.

 

Six Crises, 2009: A Half-Dozen Ways Geopolitics Could Upset Global Recovery , Michael Moran ranks 6 lurking geopolitical dangers that have the potential to foment major disruptions.

 

Green Investing Is Paying Off

Eco-friendly investments have outperformed some of the world’s most important stock indices this year. This has made green investing an attractive proposition, especially with a growing number of world leaders promoting environmentally safe technologies.

 

The Most Expensive House in The World

The German island of Sylt has long been a playground for the country’s rich and famous. Prices there, though, have gotten out of hand of late. In the city of Kampen, the world’s most expensive home is now for sale — and it’s a lot smaller than you might think.

 

Obama Popularity Edges Downward

Though the majority of Americans still view President Obama as more capable of handling the economy and health care than Republicans, the president’s margins are shrinking, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. Read More

New Jersey: More Older Voters Want Corzine Out

Campaign help from President Obama hasn’t helped Gov. Jon Corzine improve his chances in this year’s election, according to a poll from Research 2000/Daily Kos conducted Aug. 3-5. Read More

 


Microsoft-Yahoo alliance
Microsoft‘s 18-month pursuit of Yahoo looks to have concluded with a tie-up that could create a new search giant.

 

“My concern is that China might have accumulated an inventory of commodities that is probably excessive to the growth of its economy,” he told delegates, adding that the recession would “continue to the end of the year”.

TelegraphNouriel Roubini Warns China Could Cause Commodity Price Slide

However:

PurchasingEconomist Says Price Hikes Likely in 2010 for Metals, Other Raw Materials

and finally: DOUBLE DIP!!!!!!!

he Wall Street JournalDr. Doom Sees Double-Dip Recession Risk, in Remarks Down Under

 

Getty Images

A balloonist in Bristol, southwest England checks the ropes as he prepares for take-off Friday. Bristol’s annual International Balloon Fiesta is Europe’s largest hot air balloon festival and attracts thousands of spectators. This year’s perfect weather conditions allowed more than 100 balloons to rise into the skies above the city on the river Avon.

 

Avoiding Europe’s Carbon Trading Missteps

Early carbon trading efforts in the European Union flopped because regulators created too many credits and gave them away for free. Washington wants to do better.

 


Export Jump Brings Hope for End of Crisis

German’s Federal Statistics Office released export figures for June on Friday, and they have a lot of people smiling. Exports grew to 68.5 billion euros, a 7 percent rise over May’s figure. The data is the latest in a string of positive economic news being released around the world.

 

Democratic lawmakers welcomed news of slightly improved July jobless numbers Friday, crediting the stimulus package enacted earlier this year and vowing to pursue more relief efforts in the months to come. [Read More]

 

Your conventionally minded editor isn’t used to seeing a Federal Reserve chairman take his monetary policy show on the road. Then again, we’re from the old school, and we’re not used to seeing pigs fly either. But we’re obviously out of touch in the 21st century.

Ours is a world where formality gives way to “transparency,” which comes in an ever-widening rainbow of colors. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s “publicity tour” is certainly something new in the bag of central banking tricks. We thought that participating in so-called town hall forums and taking questions from the audience was an art reserved for politicians and talk-show hosts. We’re wrong. It’s also now just another tool in the otherwise dull business of managing money supply.

The old veneer of banking ceremony is fading, giving way to a penchant for empathy and personality tours. Imagine our surprise when we discovered that Mr. Bernanke was “disgusted” by some of the Fed’s recent actions, as he explained to an inquiring member of the audience in yesterday’s PBS television episode. Speaking of the various bailouts last fall, the Fed head confessed: “Nothing made me more angry than having to intervene, particularly in a few cases where companies took wild bets.” Perhaps he might have simply said that the devil made him do it. Personally, we’d have like to see some tears to make the confession more convincing.

In any case, at least we know our Fed chairman is now sympathetic to the working man. Sure, the central bank has made some tough decisions, but it also has a heart. Expressing compassion of a sort for the little guy when setting interest rates and engaging in other activity looks to be the new new thing. Big, impersonal banking institutions are out; warm and fuzzy I-feel-your-pain monetary policy is in.

Is any of this surprising in the media-infested 21st century? Perhaps not. Indeed, Mr. Bernanke, whose term is up next year, is running for re-election to the Fed and of course he’s intent on pulling every lever available on his behalf. Of course, before we can decide if his campaign is worthy of support we’ll need to see his monetary policy platform. If it’s superior to the plans of the rival candidates vying to run the Fed, well, perhaps Ben deserves another term.

To get the word out, Mr. Bernanke may want to consider running television ads in key districts. Sure, it’ll be hard to capture viewers’ attention by proclaiming to have a better monetary policy than the other guy. Television, it seems, just wasn’t made for dispensing the finer points of quantitative easing and the value of watching M1 vs. M2. But, hey, that’s a minor obstacle. Ben needs to speak to the man on the street, especially in those swing-voter districts that could tip the balance in what promises to be a tight race.

Actually, there’s a bigger problem. Fed chairman aren’t popularly elected, at least not yet. And last we checked, there are no obvious rival candidates openly campaigning for the Ben’s position, at least not yet. Instead, the Fed chief is appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or so we’re told.

Appearances can be Deceiving by James Picerno

As a result, any resemblance between Mr. Bernanke’s campaign for re-election—sorry, we meant reappointment—is merely coincidental.

 

There is something inherently counterintuitive, if not absurd, in the perception that a 1% increase in the inflation of my flower-pot is more damaging than the enormous swings we have all just experienced in the value of our wealth.

Translating the above into wonk-speak, if there is one major shake-up that this financial crisis should bring about, it is, in my opinion, the re-thinking of monetary policy as we know it… including the role of asset prices in the framing of policy rules and objectives.

To be sure, there have been plenty of papers arguing why asset prices should NOT be the direct focus of policy-makers (rather, an indirect objective, to the extent that they influence the prices of goods and services)—including by our Fed Chairman himself.

But I find these arguments wanting… To start with, they tend to rest on assumptions that have not been conclusively determined by economists (such as the size of wealth effects on consumption); or, they posit an asset bubble process that is exogenous, including to the policy tool itself (admittedly, the latter more reflects economists’ ignorance/ disagreement on how bubbles are formed).

But beyond these “small-scale” criticisms, the most important weakness I see has to do with what is currently a “consensus” about the objective of monetary policy itself. Unless one begins to rethink what monetary policy should be about, and what it should target, the arguments for or against asset-price targeting become frustratingly circular.

Monetary Policy Make-over by Models & Agents

 

From World Affairs Journal:

“Nineteen eighty-nine was a most extraordinary year. There are other years that are imprinted on historic memory, but most of them were occasions for horrible events (1917 or 1939) or disappointing ones (1789 or 1848) or the conclusions of great tragedies (1648 or 1945). The year 1989 was that rare moment when dramatic things happened that were overwhelmingly beneficent. As we watched the world change before our eyes, we learned many things. Looking back today on how the world has evolved in twenty years since that momentous time, we can distill several additional insights.”

Read Essay

 

From the Mises Institute:

Obama and the Economy by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr.

 

Governance and Control: Focus Risk Management on Multiple Levers of Control

Sponsored by IBM

Author, Jeremy Hope explains how the CFO can set the bar for ethical behavior, transparency, and effective risk management. He explains how organizations use innovative practices to create sustainable improvement in financial and operational performance. The finance teams in the companies highlighted have eliminated many of the barriers preventing the transition from business-as-usual to create—as Mr. Hope says—a more adaptive, lean, and ethical organization.

 

From CQ:

New Jersey: Corzine Struggles, Rival Christie Running Strong

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, has so much to overcome in his 2009 re-election campaign that CQ Politics is changing the rating of that race from “Tossup” to “Leans Republican.” Read More

Dodd: ‘Clear Conscience’ as 2010 Foes Close In

In the latest in a continuing storyline that could threaten his re-election, Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., said he wasn’t concerned about the possibility of an active ethics investigation into his mortgages with Countrywide Financial. Read More

Senate Affirms Obama’s U.S. Citizenship

Recently reignited theories raised by a fringe movement convinced that President Obama is not a U.S. citizen — and thus is ineligible for the office he holds — have not gained traction among Obama’s former Senate colleagues. Read More

 

The E.U. has agreed to begin talks with the United States on a pact to share counterterror info on European citizens’ bank transactions, but past CIA covert activities render some wary, The Irish Times tells — while Deutsche Presse Agentur has the very prospect “uniting disparate parts of the German political spectrum in opposition.” The Swiss government has extended a list of individuals and groups linked to al Qaeda or the Taliban who are banned from travelling through Switzerland or having Swiss accounts, Dow Jones Newswires relates. Foreign terrorists’ and insurgents’ “use of third party countries for training, fundraising, and transit is not merely an operational phenomenon, but an economic one as well,” the author of a paper titled “Foreign Fighters and Their Economic Impact” summarizes in The Counterterrorism Blog.. Somali pirates are probably using the ransom money they collect from hijacking western ships to finance Islamic terrorists, The Daily Telegraph has a parliamentary committee reporting.

 

U.S. private consumption was about US$10 trillion in 2008 and EU consumption accounted for about US$9 trillion while Asian consumption was less than US$5 trillion. With U.S. private consumption accounting for about 16% of global output, an increase in the U.S. savings rate to upper single digits and a reduction in consumption could mean a significant reduction in global GDP. While consumption in emerging market economies is on the rise, it is from a lower base, meaning that it will be difficult to make up for the reduction in U.S. consumption.

 

DPA

These are challenging times for penguins living in Germany, where temperatures soared above 30 degrees Celsius on Wednesday. Many visitors probably wouldn’t have minded joining this one trying to cool off in Frankfurt Zoo.

 

Nouriel Roubini says:

Ben Bernanke … deserves to be reappointed. Both the conventional and unconventional decisions made by this scholar of the Great Depression prevented the Great Recession of 2008-2009 from turning into the Great Depression 2.0.

Anna Schwartz has a different perspective:

As Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke has committed serious sins of commission and omission — and for those many sins, he does not deserve reappointment.

Here’s how I see it. It’s true that we failed to notice that the patient was getting sick. The signs of disease were there, but we either didn’t see the signs or they were misdiagnosed. In fact, there’s a case to be made that we saw some of the changes in the patient as signs of improving health. Had we made the correct diagnosis early enough, maybe we could have prevented the patient from getting sick (though it’s not clear the patient would have taken our advice, so stronger measures than mere advice may have been required).

Should Bernanke Be Reappointed? by Mark Thoma

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