Archive for June 6th, 2009
ILLITERACY IN HIGH PLACES
by Paul Craig Roberts
If a person lives long enough, he can watch everyone forget everything they learned.
Everyone includes Federal Reserve Chairmen, economists, Bank of America “strategists,” and even Bloomberg.com.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke thinks he can hold down US long-term interest rates by purchasing mortgage bonds and US Treasuries. Sixty years ago the Federal Reserve understood that this was an impossible feat. After an acrimonious public dispute with the US Treasury, in 1951 the Federal Reserve forced an “Accord” on the government that eliminated the Fed’s obligation to monetize Treasury debt in order to hold down long term interest rates.
President Truman and Treasury Secretary John Snyder wanted to protect World War II bond purchasers by preventing any rise in interest rates, which would mean a decline in the price of the bonds.
The Fed understood that monetizing the debt to hold down interest rates meant loss of control over the money supply. The policy of suppressing interest rates could only work until the financial markets anticipated rising inflation and bid down the bond prices. If the Fed responded by buying more Treasuries, the money supply and inflation would rise faster.
Since Fed Chairman Bernanke announced his plan to purchase $1 trillion in mortgage and Treasury bonds in order to help the housing market with low interest rates, interest rates have risen. When will the Fed remember that printing money does not lower long-term interest rates?
According to Bloomberg (June 3), Bank of America strategists are recommending that investors buy Fannie Mae bonds because the rise in interest rates means the Fed will ramp up its purchases in order to prevent rising interest rates from adversely impacting the struggling housing market. When will financial gurus remember that printing money does not lower interest rates?
Treasury Secretary Geithner is another economic incompetent. He told China that he stood for a “strong dollar,” but that China should let its currency appreciate relative to the dollar, which, of course, would mean a weaker dollar. He simultaneously told China that their investments in US Treasury bonds were safe.
His Chinese university audience, being economically literate, laughed at Geithner. It apparently did not dawn on the US Treasury Secretary that if Chinese money is rising in value relative to the US dollar, the value of Chinese investments in dollar-denominated US Treasury bonds is falling.
Congressional Democrats are proving themselves to be as stupid as the Republicans. According to the Associated Press, the Democrats have reached agreement to appropriate another $100 billion to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan through the end of the year. What are the Democrats thinking? The federal budget for this year is already 50% in the red. Why add another $100 billion to the red ink, which has to be monetized, thus causing inflation, higher interest rates, and a weaker dollar.
The red ink that Washington is generating is a far greater threat to Americans than any foreign “enemies.”
The hubris is extraordinary. A bankrupt government that has to send its Treasury Secretary begging to China thinks it can spend limitless amounts in a futile effort to control the culture, mores, and political system of distant Afghanistan.
June 6th, 2009
There are many reasons the U.S. manufacturing sector has been in decline. In GM’s case, the cuts reflect the long slide in the company’s sales and market share. Job automation and competition from countries with lower wage rates contribute to the general problem. And economists such as Morici also cite the low valuation of China’s currency, which makes it much cheaper to produce goods in China than in the U.S. “Manufacturing, including the auto sector, has been clobbered by China’s [monetary] policy,” says Morici, who is critical of President Barack Obama’s policy toward that country. “The U.S. is appeasing, not challenging China.”
Tig Gilliam, CEO of the North American group of temporary-help giant Adecco (ADEN.VX), disputes the notion that just because the service sector is doing better than manufacturing, growth will come only in low-wage jobs. “Some of the strongest industries for job growth are bookkeeping, finance, health care, and education,” he says. “They’re not all graduate-degree jobs, but they’re well-paying jobs.”
Jobs: Even Less Are ‘Made In America’ – Moira Herbst, Business Week
June 6th, 2009
Stanford University economics professor and former Treasury Undersecretary John B. Taylor has shown how the proposed additional U.S. government debt could cause 100 percent inflation over the next few years, which means most people will see their real standard of living fall as prices double. Long-term interest rates on U.S. government debt have jumped a colossal 81 percent (annualized) in just the last five months and seem slated to go higher as markets see the increased risk of future inflation.
To ameliorate some of the inflation, immature political minds (and even a few immature economists) argue for a massive tax increase to pay for all of the new debt. Mr. Taylor estimates the tax increase would have to be about 60 percent, which, of course, would kill incentives to work, save and invest and would result in a stagnant economy, or worse, massive unemployment.
For centuries in the United States, and even before under English common law, bond holders were secure in the knowledge that in a business failure they would be first in line to collect from the sale of the assets. Suddenly, the immature actors in the Obama administration have overturned well-established bankruptcy law and put a politically favored union ahead of the bond holders in the case of Chrysler and General Motors Corp.
Immaturity In Economic Power – Richard Rahn, Washington Times
June 6th, 2009
“In their desire for mathematical order and elegant models,” he wrote in his firm’s quarterly letter to clients earlier this year, “the economic establishment played down the role of bad behavior” — not to mention “flat-out bursts of irrationality.”
He continued: “The incredibly inaccurate efficient market theory was believed in totality by many of our financial leaders, and believed in part by almost all. It left our economic and government establishment sitting by confidently, even as a lethally dangerous combination of asset bubbles, lax controls, pernicious incentives and wickedly complicated instruments led to our current plight. ‘Surely, none of this could be happening in a rational, efficient world,’ they seemed to be thinking. And the absolutely worst part of this belief set was that it led to a chronic underestimation of the dangers of asset bubbles breaking.”
(Mr. Grantham concluded: “Well, it’s nice to get that off my chest again!”)
Poking Holes In a Market Theory – Joe Nocera, New York Times
June 6th, 2009
